Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
43 of 60 top Polymarket traders hold Down (72%) · Down at 100¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Down
60
Down 72%
1 arb excluded
$27.9K
-$204.47
87.9¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 43 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
43 of 60 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.6K | +$33.66 | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$7.46 | 37% 117-200 (317) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$33.25 | 99% 676-5 (681) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$189.71 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$1.03 | 50% 1135-1122 (2257) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$105.98 | 49% 1538-1576 (3114) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83¢ | $817.09 | $842.16 | +$25.07 | 45% 871-1082 (1953) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $532.91 | $491.41 | +$3.33 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 89.7¢ | $509.88 | $443.35 | -$7.73 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 68¢ | $228.01 | $333.88 | +$105.88 | 45% 549-681 (1230) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.3¢ | $283.26 | $327.68 | +$44.42 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $261.7 | $294.84 | +$33.14 | 51% 628-607 (1235) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 88.6¢ | $245.61 | $261.9 | +$16.29 | 59% 786-538 (1324) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 47¢ | $117.5 | $249.88 | +$132.38 | 51% 782-744 (1526) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 74.1¢ | $448.25 | $245.44 | -$29.31 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $169.37 | $228.58 | +$59.21 | 50% 621-622 (1243) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 86.9¢ | $191.43 | $214.67 | +$23.25 | 58% 761-550 (1311) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 88¢ | $166.36 | $184.24 | +$17.88 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $195.19 | $169.41 | -$25.78 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.1¢ | $109.3 | $128.1 | +$18.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.7¢ | $85.89 | $41.31 | -$44.58 | |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84¢ | $134.51 | $150.47 | +$15.96 | 51% 297-283 (580) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $156.33 | $149.34 | -$6.99 | 29% 534-1288 (1822) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 62¢ | $140.02 | $149.3 | +$9.28 | 49% 596-626 (1222) |
AL almach | Downavg 64¢ | $306.02 | $128.98 | +$161.36 | 50% 1107-1127 (2234) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95¢ | $480 | $110.42 | +$16.1 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 52¢ | $98.15 | $100.98 | +$2.83 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
Invested
$8,735
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$33.66
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$7.46
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$33.25
Record
99%
676-5 (681)
Invested
$2,034.5
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$189.71
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$2,052.64
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$1.03
Record
50%
1135-1122 (2257)
Invested
$1,472.05
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$105.98
Record
49%
1538-1576 (3114)
machinelearnedInvested
$817.09
Value
$842.16
PnL
+$25.07
Record
45%
871-1082 (1953)
Invested
$532.91
Value
$491.41
PnL
+$3.33
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$509.88
Value
$443.35
PnL
-$7.73
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$228.01
Value
$333.88
PnL
+$105.88
Record
45%
549-681 (1230)
Invested
$283.26
Value
$327.68
PnL
+$44.42
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$261.7
Value
$294.84
PnL
+$33.14
Record
51%
628-607 (1235)
Invested
$245.61
Value
$261.9
PnL
+$16.29
Record
59%
786-538 (1324)
Invested
$117.5
Value
$249.88
PnL
+$132.38
Record
51%
782-744 (1526)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$448.25
Value
$245.44
PnL
-$29.31
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$169.37
Value
$228.58
PnL
+$59.21
Record
50%
621-622 (1243)
Invested
$191.43
Value
$214.67
PnL
+$23.25
Record
58%
761-550 (1311)
Invested
$166.36
Value
$184.24
PnL
+$17.88
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
Invested
$195.19
Value
$169.41
PnL
-$25.78
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.51
Value
$150.47
PnL
+$15.96
Record
51%
297-283 (580)
Invested
$156.33
Value
$149.34
PnL
-$6.99
Record
29%
534-1288 (1822)
Invested
$140.02
Value
$149.3
PnL
+$9.28
Record
49%
596-626 (1222)
Invested
$306.02
Value
$128.98
PnL
+$161.36
Record
50%
1107-1127 (2234)
Invested
$480
Value
$110.42
PnL
+$16.1
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Invested
$98.15
Value
$100.98
PnL
+$2.83
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $7.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $4.8K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.2K
0x50f7
Down — $2.1K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.6K
machinelearned
Down — $842.16
ByteBadger92
Down — $491.41
blue.birds
Down — $443.35
0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670
Down — $333.88