Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Up 40%
8 arb excluded
$10.6K
$-14.4K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 54 top traders (39%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.8K | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 37% 117-200 (317) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$52.69 | 99% 676-5 (681) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 90.7¢ | $966.19 | $963.31 | -$2.88 | 49% 1097-1145 (2242) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$922.91 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.4¢ | $541.73 | $567.39 | +$25.67 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 51¢ | $510.75 | $555.01 | +$49.54 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $551.79 | — | -$505.76 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 41.8¢ | $597.1 | $421.52 | -$175.59 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.1¢ | $244.97 | $421.52 | +$176.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.8¢ | $352.13 | — | -$352.13 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 30.8¢ | $444.39 | — | -$444.39 | 46% 800-941 (1741) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 66.6¢ | $236.07 | $327.46 | +$91.38 | 59% 786-538 (1324) |
BO bosona | Downavg 87.1¢ | $411.72 | $307.14 | -$104.59 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76¢ | $386.77 | $265.64 | -$13.16 | 29% 534-1288 (1822) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 74.3¢ | $218.59 | $258.24 | +$39.65 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 70.7¢ | $219.34 | $252.61 | +$33.28 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 62.6¢ | $237.18 | $227.09 | -$10.09 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $200 | — | -$200 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.3¢ | $224.31 | $198.73 | -$25.58 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
AL almach | Downavg 93.9¢ | $207.15 | $204.45 | -$2.7 | 50% 1107-1127 (2234) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 73¢ | $165.21 | $199.99 | +$34.78 | 45% 871-1082 (1953) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $161.55 | $179.15 | +$17.6 | 51% 628-607 (1235) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.6¢ | $80.02 | — | -$80.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.5¢ | $81.53 | $179.15 | +$97.62 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $193.29 | $251.48 | +$58.19 | 45% 549-681 (1230) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.5¢ | $60.34 | — | -$60.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.9¢ | $132.95 | $251.48 | +$118.53 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 64¢ | $169.2 | $175.64 | +$6.44 | 45% 635-768 (1403) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 43.7¢ | $193.07 | — | -$193.07 | 55% 713-588 (1301) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 59.2¢ | $122.74 | $150.69 | +$27.95 | 50% 593-587 (1180) |
Invested
$8,800
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$3,447.31
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$52.69
Record
99%
676-5 (681)
Invested
$966.19
Value
$963.31
PnL
-$2.88
Record
49%
1097-1145 (2242)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$922.91
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$541.73
Value
$567.39
PnL
+$25.67
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$510.75
Value
$555.01
PnL
+$49.54
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Invested
$551.79
Value
—
PnL
-$505.76
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$597.1
Value
$421.52
PnL
-$175.59
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Both legs:
Invested
$444.39
Value
—
PnL
-$444.39
Record
46%
800-941 (1741)
Invested
$236.07
Value
$327.46
PnL
+$91.38
Record
59%
786-538 (1324)
Invested
$411.72
Value
$307.14
PnL
-$104.59
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Invested
$386.77
Value
$265.64
PnL
-$13.16
Record
29%
534-1288 (1822)
Invested
$218.59
Value
$258.24
PnL
+$39.65
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
Invested
$219.34
Value
$252.61
PnL
+$33.28
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
Invested
$237.18
Value
$227.09
PnL
-$10.09
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$200
Value
—
PnL
-$200
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
Invested
$224.31
Value
$198.73
PnL
-$25.58
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$207.15
Value
$204.45
PnL
-$2.7
Record
50%
1107-1127 (2234)
machinelearnedInvested
$165.21
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$34.78
Record
45%
871-1082 (1953)
Invested
$161.55
Value
$179.15
PnL
+$17.6
Record
51%
628-607 (1235)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.29
Value
$251.48
PnL
+$58.19
Record
45%
549-681 (1230)
Both legs:
Invested
$169.2
Value
$175.64
PnL
+$6.44
Record
45%
635-768 (1403)
Invested
$193.07
Value
—
PnL
-$193.07
Record
55%
713-588 (1301)
OhioAIInvested
$122.74
Value
$150.69
PnL
+$27.95
Record
50%
593-587 (1180)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
mo-money
Down — $963.31
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $567.39
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $555.01
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0