Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
64
Down 47%
2 arb excluded
$24.5K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 64 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.2K | +$588 | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$269.49 | 37% 117-200 (317) |
TH THG. | Downavg 97.7¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$80.81 | 99% 676-5 (681) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $882.2 | $1.1K | +$170.45 | 49% 596-626 (1222) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 48.2¢ | $809.11 | $940.43 | +$132.09 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 26.5¢ | $421.01 | — | -$421.01 | 46% 800-941 (1741) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 40.5¢ | $725.67 | — | -$725.67 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 24.6¢ | $259.98 | — | -$259.98 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 27.1¢ | $241.35 | — | -$241.35 | 49% 1097-1145 (2242) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Upavg 70.4¢ | $306.25 | — | -$306.25 | 44% 1668-2150 (3818) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 48.8¢ | $662.78 | — | -$662.78 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
AL almach | Downavg 30.2¢ | $376.53 | $669.97 | +$368.44 | 50% 1107-1127 (2234) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 15.1¢ | $170.68 | $668.16 | +$497.48 | 51% 623-595 (1218) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $521.76 | $635.06 | +$113.3 | 29% 534-1288 (1822) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.2¢ | $565.98 | — | -$479.83 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 33.7¢ | $322.6 | $473.39 | +$162.59 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $309.31 | $516.27 | +$206.95 | 24% 361-1131 (1492) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 49.5¢ | $421.06 | $436.58 | +$15.52 | 45% 635-768 (1403) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 59.3¢ | $374.07 | $414.68 | +$40.61 | 55% 713-588 (1301) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 40.6¢ | $299.83 | $385.16 | +$85.33 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.9¢ | $25.5 | — | -$25.5 | 45% 549-681 (1230) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 54.5¢ | $272.02 | $259.44 | -$12.58 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 65.1¢ | $309.82 | $240.02 | -$69.81 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 38.5¢ | $170.59 | $252.1 | +$81.51 | 54% 4397-3814 (8211) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR | Upavg 68.2¢ | $240.51 | — | -$240.51 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
Invested
$8,613
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$588
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$269.49
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$3,419.19
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$80.81
Record
99%
676-5 (681)
Invested
$882.2
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$170.45
Record
49%
596-626 (1222)
Invested
$809.11
Value
$940.43
PnL
+$132.09
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$421.01
Value
—
PnL
-$421.01
Record
46%
800-941 (1741)
Invested
$725.67
Value
—
PnL
-$725.67
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Invested
$259.98
Value
—
PnL
-$259.98
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Invested
$241.35
Value
—
PnL
-$241.35
Record
49%
1097-1145 (2242)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$306.25
Value
—
PnL
-$306.25
Record
44%
1668-2150 (3818)
Invested
$662.78
Value
—
PnL
-$662.78
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
Invested
$376.53
Value
$669.97
PnL
+$368.44
Record
50%
1107-1127 (2234)
Invested
$170.68
Value
$668.16
PnL
+$497.48
Record
51%
623-595 (1218)
Invested
$521.76
Value
$635.06
PnL
+$113.3
Record
29%
534-1288 (1822)
Invested
$565.98
Value
—
PnL
-$479.83
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$322.6
Value
$473.39
PnL
+$162.59
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
NIULAI4Invested
$309.31
Value
$516.27
PnL
+$206.95
Record
24%
361-1131 (1492)
Invested
$421.06
Value
$436.58
PnL
+$15.52
Record
45%
635-768 (1403)
Invested
$374.07
Value
$414.68
PnL
+$40.61
Record
55%
713-588 (1301)
Invested
$299.83
Value
$385.16
PnL
+$85.33
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$25.5
Value
—
PnL
-$25.5
Record
45%
549-681 (1230)
Invested
$272.02
Value
$259.44
PnL
-$12.58
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$309.82
Value
$240.02
PnL
-$69.81
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
FairValueMachineInvested
$170.59
Value
$252.1
PnL
+$81.51
Record
54%
4397-3814 (8211)
Invested
$240.51
Value
—
PnL
-$240.51
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.2K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
Down — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $940.43
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
bosona
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0