Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
57
Down 42%
2 arb excluded
$8.1K
$-11.9K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 57 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.0K | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 37% 117-200 (317) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 94.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$45.56 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$937.65 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.8¢ | $506.17 | $543.61 | +$37.44 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.8¢ | $565.02 | $500.01 | +$9.46 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 70¢ | $364.28 | $373.86 | +$9.58 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 81.9¢ | $373.15 | $355 | -$18.15 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 82.7¢ | $269.44 | $325.65 | +$56.21 | 55% 1559-1298 (2857) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 92.9¢ | $303.2 | $306.4 | +$3.19 | 59% 786-538 (1324) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $212.66 | $163.54 | -$49.13 | 45% 871-1082 (1953) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12¢ | $108 | — | -$108 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $104.66 | $163.54 | +$58.87 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 79.6¢ | $374.26 | $299.14 | -$23.53 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.4¢ | $293.64 | $295.51 | +$1.87 | 48% 1198-1305 (2503) |
BO bosona | Upavg 81¢ | $227.91 | $266.01 | +$38.1 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $188.43 | $269 | +$80.58 | 51% 623-595 (1218) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 92.5¢ | $269.89 | $247.35 | -$22.54 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 88.1¢ | $248.94 | $238.91 | -$10.03 | 58% 761-550 (1311) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 53.2¢ | $137.27 | $222.33 | +$85.06 | 52% 697-654 (1351) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $210.65 | $213 | +$2.35 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 75.7¢ | $190.45 | $221.47 | +$31.02 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 54¢ | $81 | $150 | +$69 | 51% 297-283 (580) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $104.49 | $122.31 | +$17.81 | 50% 621-622 (1243) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 25.5¢ | $148.4 | $58.33 | -$90.07 | 46% 800-941 (1741) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.5¢ | $104.07 | — | -$104.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76¢ | $44.33 | $58.33 | +$14 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $112.74 | $100 | -$3.57 | 29% 534-1288 (1822) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 47¢ | $94 | $199.99 | +$105.99 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
Invested
$8,536
Value
—
PnL
$-7.0K
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$2,044.94
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$45.56
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$937.65
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$506.17
Value
$543.61
PnL
+$37.44
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$565.02
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$9.46
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$364.28
Value
$373.86
PnL
+$9.58
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$373.15
Value
$355
PnL
-$18.15
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Invested
$269.44
Value
$325.65
PnL
+$56.21
Record
55%
1559-1298 (2857)
Invested
$303.2
Value
$306.4
PnL
+$3.19
Record
59%
786-538 (1324)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$212.66
Value
$163.54
PnL
-$49.13
Record
45%
871-1082 (1953)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$374.26
Value
$299.14
PnL
-$23.53
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$293.64
Value
$295.51
PnL
+$1.87
Record
48%
1198-1305 (2503)
Invested
$227.91
Value
$266.01
PnL
+$38.1
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Invested
$188.43
Value
$269
PnL
+$80.58
Record
51%
623-595 (1218)
Invested
$269.89
Value
$247.35
PnL
-$22.54
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
Invested
$248.94
Value
$238.91
PnL
-$10.03
Record
58%
761-550 (1311)
Invested
$137.27
Value
$222.33
PnL
+$85.06
Record
52%
697-654 (1351)
Invested
$210.65
Value
$213
PnL
+$2.35
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
Invested
$190.45
Value
$221.47
PnL
+$31.02
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
Invested
$81
Value
$150
PnL
+$69
Record
51%
297-283 (580)
Invested
$104.49
Value
$122.31
PnL
+$17.81
Record
50%
621-622 (1243)
Invested
$148.4
Value
$58.33
PnL
-$90.07
Record
46%
800-941 (1741)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.74
Value
$100
PnL
-$3.57
Record
29%
534-1288 (1822)
Invested
$94
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$105.99
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $2.1K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $543.61
ByteBadger92
Up — $500.01
stepahead
Up — $373.86
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $355
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $325.65
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $306.4