Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.3K

Smart Money Signal

41 of 51 top traders (80%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,677

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Up41 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares22,257

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Down — 20%Up — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-7.4K	57% 282-217 (499)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$80.84	37% 117-200 (317)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	72% 1328-513 (1841)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.23	98% 2839-60 (2899)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 55.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$2.31	43% 591-772 (1363)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 62.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.83	52% 4550-4257 (8807)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$925	+$13.75	51% 2752-2659 (5411)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 65.6¢	$710.14	$867.06	+$156.92	45% 549-681 (1230)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 58.4¢	$732.31	$768.12	+$35.82	60% 825-557 (1382)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72.4¢	$732.23	$809.51	+$78.13	55% 713-588 (1301)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 58.6¢	$652.52	$656.87	+$30.35	45% 635-768 (1403)
NIULAI4	Upavg 75.8¢	$565.9	$731.29	+$165.39	24% 361-1131 (1492)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 55.3¢	$492.36	$573.29	+$88.93	29% 534-1288 (1822)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 66.3¢	$506.29	$523.29	+$17	46% 800-941 (1741)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$347.18	$523.29	+$176.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.5¢	$159.11	—	-$159.11
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$531.07	$521.28	-$9.79	51% 623-595 (1218)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$339.79	$521.28	+$181.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$191.28	—	-$191.28
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$514.15	$489.76	-$24.39	55% 4157-3431 (7588)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$331.28	$489.76	+$158.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.4¢	$182.86	—	-$182.86
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.4¢	$557.86	$489.04	+$14.69	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
BO bosona	Upavg 78.4¢	$414.63	$528.98	+$114.35	51% 4353-4244 (8597)
MO mo-money	Upavg 88.3¢	$559.52	$576.22	+$16.7	49% 1097-1145 (2242)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$393.6	$318.86	-$74.74	52% 641-593 (1234)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.8¢	$225.63	$318.86	+$93.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$167.97	—	-$167.97
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 79.7¢	$351.67	$441.01	+$89.33	50% 621-622 (1243)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 75.3¢	$472.44	$349.45	-$70.7	51% 297-283 (580)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$343.51	$328.05	-$15.46	51% 628-607 (1235)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$191.61	$328.05	+$136.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$151.9	—	-$151.9
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$360.53	$335.82	-$24.71	54% 694-603 (1297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$236.11	$335.82	+$99.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.4¢	$124.42	—	-$124.42
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 62.3¢	$208.42	$334.62	+$126.19	55% 1559-1298 (2857)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,766

Value

—

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

57%

282-217 (499)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$80.84

Record

37%

117-200 (317)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

72%

1328-513 (1841)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,309.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.23

Record

98%

2839-60 (2899)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,277.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$2.31

Record

43%

591-772 (1363)

blue.birds

Invested

$1,132.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.83

Record

52%

4550-4257 (8807)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$925

PnL

+$13.75

Record

51%

2752-2659 (5411)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$710.14

Value

$867.06

PnL

+$156.92

Record

45%

549-681 (1230)

Bonereaper

Invested

$732.31

Value

$768.12

PnL

+$35.82

Record

60%

825-557 (1382)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$732.23

Value

$809.51

PnL

+$78.13

Record

55%

713-588 (1301)

GoodFallen

Invested

$652.52

Value

$656.87

PnL

+$30.35

Record

45%

635-768 (1403)

NIULAI4

Invested

$565.9

Value

$731.29

PnL

+$165.39

Record

24%

361-1131 (1492)

ply-pm0

Invested

$492.36

Value

$573.29

PnL

+$88.93

Record

29%

534-1288 (1822)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$506.29

Value

$523.29

PnL

+$17

Record

46%

800-941 (1741)

Both legs:

Up$347.1866.3¢+$176.11

Down$159.1124.5¢-$159.11

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$531.07

Value

$521.28

PnL

-$9.79

Record

51%

623-595 (1218)

Both legs:

Up$339.7965.2¢+$181.49

Down$191.2835¢-$191.28

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$514.15

Value

$489.76

PnL

-$24.39

Record

55%

4157-3431 (7588)

Both legs:

Up$331.2867.6¢+$158.48

Down$182.8632.4¢-$182.86

ByteBadger92

Invested

$557.86

Value

$489.04

PnL

+$14.69

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

bosona

Invested

$414.63

Value

$528.98

PnL

+$114.35

Record

51%

4353-4244 (8597)

mo-money

Invested

$559.52

Value

$576.22

PnL

+$16.7

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$393.6

Value

$318.86

PnL

-$74.74

Record

52%

641-593 (1234)

Both legs:

Up$225.6370.8¢+$93.23

Down$167.9730.8¢-$167.97

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$351.67

Value

$441.01

PnL

+$89.33

Record

50%

621-622 (1243)

gansinimen

Invested

$472.44

Value

$349.45

PnL

-$70.7

Record

51%

297-283 (580)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$343.51

Value

$328.05

PnL

-$15.46

Record

51%

628-607 (1235)

Both legs:

Up$191.6158.4¢+$136.44

Down$151.936¢-$151.9

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$360.53

Value

$335.82

PnL

-$24.71

Record

54%

694-603 (1297)

Both legs:

Up$236.1170.3¢+$99.71

Down$124.4234.4¢-$124.42

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$208.42

Value

$334.62

PnL

+$126.19

Record

55%

1559-1298 (2857)

Smart Money Signal

41 of 51 top traders (80%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1b348a04...0e3296

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794594000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.4K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$80.84

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

+$30

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$13.23

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

+$2.31

blue.birds

Up — $1.1K

+$15.83

soswald1

Up — $925

+$13.75

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Up — $867.06

+$156.92

Bonereaper

Up — $768.12

+$35.82

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $809.51

+$78.13

Trade on Polymarket