Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Up 71%
7 arb excluded
$19.8K
$-5.4K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 56 top traders (71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.1K | +$89.68 | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 37% 117-200 (317) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$28.15 | 99% 676-5 (681) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.3¢ | $960.84 | $997.11 | +$52.25 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 79.2¢ | $806.21 | $816.57 | +$10.36 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 78.4¢ | $723.79 | $638.57 | -$82.12 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.9¢ | $508.5 | $520.42 | +$11.92 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $560.67 | $500.06 | +$12.84 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 73.5¢ | $425.8 | $439.42 | +$24.06 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 47.7¢ | $381.99 | — | -$381.99 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 79.1¢ | $329.77 | $385.64 | +$55.87 | 58% 761-550 (1311) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 79.5¢ | $409.6 | $325.06 | -$84.54 | 46% 800-941 (1741) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $338.29 | $316.49 | -$21.8 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $288.19 | $232.54 | -$55.65 | 45% 635-768 (1403) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.8¢ | $180.99 | $232.54 | +$51.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.4¢ | $107.19 | — | -$107.19 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 75.1¢ | $246.33 | $279.74 | +$33.41 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 80.1¢ | $252.25 | $294.34 | +$42.09 | 59% 786-538 (1324) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 77.9¢ | $238.11 | $305.71 | +$67.6 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
AL almach | Upavg 84.8¢ | $185.46 | $216.03 | +$30.57 | 50% 1107-1127 (2234) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $241.82 | $140.16 | -$101.66 | 49% 1097-1145 (2242) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 90.5¢ | $126.82 | $140.16 | +$13.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23¢ | $115 | — | -$115 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 75.5¢ | $194.61 | $202.52 | +$7.9 | 45% 549-681 (1230) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $208.2 | $110 | -$98.2 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.7¢ | $93.2 | $110 | +$16.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23¢ | $115 | — | -$115 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 86¢ | $202.17 | $169.51 | -$30.53 | 52% 697-654 (1351) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 76.2¢ | $156.01 | $185.04 | +$29.02 | 45% 871-1082 (1953) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $158.57 | $136.48 | -$22.09 | 55% 713-588 (1301) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.4¢ | $105.68 | $136.48 | +$30.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.2¢ | $52.89 | — | -$52.89 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 85¢ | $127.5 | $150 | +$22.5 | 51% 297-283 (580) |
Invested
$8,888
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$89.68
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$2,787.23
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$28.15
Record
99%
676-5 (681)
Invested
$960.84
Value
$997.11
PnL
+$52.25
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$806.21
Value
$816.57
PnL
+$10.36
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Invested
$723.79
Value
$638.57
PnL
-$82.12
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$508.5
Value
$520.42
PnL
+$11.92
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$560.67
Value
$500.06
PnL
+$12.84
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$425.8
Value
$439.42
PnL
+$24.06
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$381.99
Value
—
PnL
-$381.99
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
Invested
$329.77
Value
$385.64
PnL
+$55.87
Record
58%
761-550 (1311)
Invested
$409.6
Value
$325.06
PnL
-$84.54
Record
46%
800-941 (1741)
Invested
$338.29
Value
$316.49
PnL
-$21.8
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Invested
$288.19
Value
$232.54
PnL
-$55.65
Record
45%
635-768 (1403)
Both legs:
Invested
$246.33
Value
$279.74
PnL
+$33.41
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
Invested
$252.25
Value
$294.34
PnL
+$42.09
Record
59%
786-538 (1324)
Invested
$238.11
Value
$305.71
PnL
+$67.6
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
Invested
$185.46
Value
$216.03
PnL
+$30.57
Record
50%
1107-1127 (2234)
Invested
$241.82
Value
$140.16
PnL
-$101.66
Record
49%
1097-1145 (2242)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.61
Value
$202.52
PnL
+$7.9
Record
45%
549-681 (1230)
Invested
$208.2
Value
$110
PnL
-$98.2
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Both legs:
Invested
$202.17
Value
$169.51
PnL
-$30.53
Record
52%
697-654 (1351)
machinelearnedInvested
$156.01
Value
$185.04
PnL
+$29.02
Record
45%
871-1082 (1953)
Invested
$158.57
Value
$136.48
PnL
-$22.09
Record
55%
713-588 (1301)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$22.5
Record
51%
297-283 (580)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.8K
blue.birds
Up — $997.11
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $816.57
Bonereaper
Up — $638.57
stepahead
Up — $520.42
ByteBadger92
Up — $500.06
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $439.42
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0