Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$-12.9K

Smart Money Signal

25 of 57 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares17,367

Combined PnL$-13.2K

Down32 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,372

Combined PnL+$324.42

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-8.2K	57% 282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-3.9K	37% 117-200 (317)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 86.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$164.98	60% 825-557 (1382)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 72.7¢	$647.94	$607.98	-$39.96	51% 297-283 (580)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 76.4¢	$602.28	$585.52	-$16.76	52% 4550-4257 (8807)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$531.45	—	-$499.25	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$340.68	$380.08	+$39.39	50% 1107-1127 (2234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.7¢	$303.07	$380.08	+$77.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.5¢	$37.61	—	-$37.61
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 69¢	$458.9	$432.51	-$26.39	43% 591-772 (1363)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.7¢	$423.23	$424.72	+$1.49	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 64.4¢	$366.96	$320	-$46.96	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
SP spartacray	Downavg 86.9¢	$222.85	$251.25	+$28.4	58% 761-550 (1311)
ST stepahead	Downavg 80.9¢	$207.27	$217.19	+$9.92	55% 4157-3431 (7588)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$85.05	$110.01	+$24.96	49% 1097-1145 (2242)
└ Up leg	Upavg 3.6¢	$29.01	—	-$29.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$56.04	$110.01	+$53.96
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.7¢	$170.68	$153.04	-$17.64	54% 694-603 (1297)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 62.7¢	$103.56	$145.45	+$46.11	55% 713-588 (1301)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 69.4¢	$121.19	$147.02	+$25.83	66% 2874-1453 (4327)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 79.5¢	$104.99	$119.98	+$14.99	59% 786-538 (1324)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 93.5¢	$121.15	$119.98	-$1.17	59% 771-528 (1299)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$131.77	$93.63	-$38.14	51% 628-607 (1235)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$35.44	$93.63	+$58.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$96.33	—	-$96.33
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$63.14	$99.55	+$36.68	52% 697-654 (1351)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 38.6¢	$125.48	—	-$125.48	29% 534-1288 (1822)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$77.68	$91.43	+$13.75	50% 593-587 (1180)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100	Downavg 89.4¢	$82.03	$84.19	+$2.16	45% 549-681 (1230)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 21.4¢	$104.93	—	-$84.38	45% 635-768 (1403)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$56.19	$58.46	+$2.27	46% 1189-1389 (2578)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,720

Value

—

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

57%

282-217 (499)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

37%

117-200 (317)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,626.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$164.98

Record

60%

825-557 (1382)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$647.94

Value

$607.98

PnL

-$39.96

Record

51%

297-283 (580)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$602.28

Value

$585.52

PnL

-$16.76

Record

52%

4550-4257 (8807)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$531.45

Value

—

PnL

-$499.25

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.68

Value

$380.08

PnL

+$39.39

Record

50%

1107-1127 (2234)

Both legs:

Down$303.0779.7¢+$77.01

Up$37.614.5¢-$37.61

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$458.9

Value

$432.51

PnL

-$26.39

Record

43%

591-772 (1363)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$423.23

Value

$424.72

PnL

+$1.49

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$366.96

Value

$320

PnL

-$46.96

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$222.85

Value

$251.25

PnL

+$28.4

Record

58%

761-550 (1311)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$207.27

Value

$217.19

PnL

+$9.92

Record

55%

4157-3431 (7588)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.05

Value

$110.01

PnL

+$24.96

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

Both legs:

Up$29.013.6¢-$29.01

Down$56.0450.9¢+$53.96

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$170.68

Value

$153.04

PnL

-$17.64

Record

54%

694-603 (1297)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$103.56

Value

$145.45

PnL

+$46.11

Record

55%

713-588 (1301)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$121.19

Value

$147.02

PnL

+$25.83

Record

66%

2874-1453 (4327)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$104.99

Value

$119.98

PnL

+$14.99

Record

59%

786-538 (1324)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$121.15

Value

$119.98

PnL

-$1.17

Record

59%

771-528 (1299)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$131.77

Value

$93.63

PnL

-$38.14

Record

51%

628-607 (1235)

Both legs:

Down$35.4437.9¢+$58.19

Up$96.3328.5¢-$96.33

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$63.14

Value

$99.55

PnL

+$36.68

Record

52%

697-654 (1351)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$125.48

Value

—

PnL

-$125.48

Record

29%

534-1288 (1822)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$77.68

Value

$91.43

PnL

+$13.75

Record

50%

593-587 (1180)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100

Down

Invested

$82.03

Value

$84.19

PnL

+$2.16

Record

45%

549-681 (1230)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$104.93

Value

—

PnL

-$84.38

Record

45%

635-768 (1403)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$56.19

Value

$58.46

PnL

+$2.27

Record

46%

1189-1389 (2578)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 57 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb55a7166...7c66c7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794593400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $1.8K

+$164.98

gansinimen

Down — $607.98

-$39.96

blue.birds

Down — $585.52

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

almach

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $432.51

-$26.39

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $424.72

+$1.49

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $320

-$46.96

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