Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$-11.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 57 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,823

Combined PnL$-12.4K

Down35 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares10,893

Combined PnL+$520.58

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-7.3K	57% 282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.5K	37% 117-200 (317)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.14	99% 676-5 (681)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 73.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$260.19	50% 1904-1877 (3781)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78.2¢	$960.64	$854.61	+$25.57	52% 4550-4257 (8807)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.5¢	$717.7	$771.32	+$86.17	29% 534-1288 (1822)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 77.8¢	$721.17	$645.93	-$75.23	43% 591-772 (1363)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 82.1¢	$629.15	$629.08	-$0.07	52% 641-593 (1234)
ST stepahead	Downavg 78.4¢	$515.3	$575.24	+$59.94	55% 4157-3431 (7588)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 72.7¢	$470.97	$524.15	+$53.18	45% 635-768 (1403)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.2¢	$548.05	$490.99	+$1.99	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 70.8¢	$527.28	$410.59	-$116.69	60% 825-557 (1382)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$278.77	$380.87	+$102.1	54% 694-603 (1297)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$266.12	$380.87	+$114.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.1¢	$12.65	—	-$12.65
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$195.38	$170.81	-$24.57	49% 594-621 (1215)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$111.03	$170.81	+$59.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.4¢	$84.36	—	-$84.36
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 75.3¢	$218.23	$216.92	-$1.32	50% 621-622 (1243)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 77.7¢	$194.37	$193.26	-$1.11	46% 1189-1389 (2578)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 59.8¢	$171.84	$190.44	+$18.6	45% 549-681 (1230)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$205.04	$158.22	-$46.82	54% 4397-3814 (8211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.8¢	$119.93	$158.22	+$38.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$85.11	—	-$85.11
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 89.4¢	$165.31	$172.61	+$7.31	51% 623-595 (1218)
BoneOhioARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$160.49	$150	-$10.49	72% 1328-513 (1841)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$105	$150	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.5¢	$55.49	—	-$55.49
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$285.39	$155.29	-$19.53	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$108.63	$155.29	+$35.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$72.16	—	-$55.27
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$159.17	$114.54	-$44.63	58% 761-550 (1311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$60.84	—	-$60.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.8¢	$98.33	$114.54	+$16.21
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$157.98	$169.39	+$11.41	59% 771-528 (1299)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.2¢	$129.02	$169.39	+$40.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.2¢	$28.96	—	-$28.96
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 80.4¢	$134.91	$152.15	+$17.24	49% 3898-3999 (7897)
ohioism	Downavg 78.5¢	$143.8	$148	+$10.65	48% 1683-1811 (3494)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,715

Value

—

PnL

$-7.3K

Record

57%

282-217 (499)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

37%

117-200 (317)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,191.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.14

Record

99%

676-5 (681)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,234.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$260.19

Record

50%

1904-1877 (3781)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$960.64

Value

$854.61

PnL

+$25.57

Record

52%

4550-4257 (8807)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$717.7

Value

$771.32

PnL

+$86.17

Record

29%

534-1288 (1822)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$721.17

Value

$645.93

PnL

-$75.23

Record

43%

591-772 (1363)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$629.15

Value

$629.08

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

641-593 (1234)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$515.3

Value

$575.24

PnL

+$59.94

Record

55%

4157-3431 (7588)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$470.97

Value

$524.15

PnL

+$53.18

Record

45%

635-768 (1403)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$548.05

Value

$490.99

PnL

+$1.99

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$527.28

Value

$410.59

PnL

-$116.69

Record

60%

825-557 (1382)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$278.77

Value

$380.87

PnL

+$102.1

Record

54%

694-603 (1297)

Both legs:

Down$266.1269.9¢+$114.75

Up$12.659.1¢-$12.65

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$195.38

Value

$170.81

PnL

-$24.57

Record

49%

594-621 (1215)

Both legs:

Down$111.0365¢+$59.78

Up$84.3618.4¢-$84.36

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$218.23

Value

$216.92

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

621-622 (1243)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$194.37

Value

$193.26

PnL

-$1.11

Record

46%

1189-1389 (2578)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$171.84

Value

$190.44

PnL

+$18.6

Record

45%

549-681 (1230)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$205.04

Value

$158.22

PnL

-$46.82

Record

54%

4397-3814 (8211)

Both legs:

Down$119.9375.8¢+$38.29

Up$85.1124.2¢-$85.11

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$165.31

Value

$172.61

PnL

+$7.31

Record

51%

623-595 (1218)

BoneOhioARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.49

Value

$150

PnL

-$10.49

Record

72%

1328-513 (1841)

Both legs:

Down$10570¢+$45

Up$55.4918.5¢-$55.49

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$285.39

Value

$155.29

PnL

-$19.53

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

Both legs:

Down$108.6370¢+$35.75

Up$72.1631.2¢-$55.27

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.17

Value

$114.54

PnL

-$44.63

Record

58%

761-550 (1311)

Both legs:

Up$60.8428.2¢-$60.84

Down$98.3385.8¢+$16.21

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.98

Value

$169.39

PnL

+$11.41

Record

59%

771-528 (1299)

Both legs:

Down$129.0276.2¢+$40.37

Up$28.9621.2¢-$28.96

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$134.91

Value

$152.15

PnL

+$17.24

Record

49%

3898-3999 (7897)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$143.8

Value

$148

PnL

+$10.65

Record

48%

1683-1811 (3494)

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 57 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0b37cc40...f194d2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794593100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $2.2K

+$22.14

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.4K

+$260.19

blue.birds

Down — $854.61

+$25.57

ply-pm0

Down — $771.32

+$86.17

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $645.93

-$75.23

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $629.08

-$0.07

stepahead

Down — $575.24

+$59.94

GoodFallen

Down — $524.15

+$53.18

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