Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
61
Down 66%
6 arb excluded
$14.6K
$-11.8K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 61 top traders (67%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-6.8K | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 37% 117-200 (317) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 676-5 (681) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.4¢ | $1.0K | $959.28 | -$89.59 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $935 | +$2.2 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.8¢ | $787.91 | $832.63 | +$44.72 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 80¢ | $503.34 | $620 | +$116.66 | 45% 871-1082 (1953) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 77.7¢ | $564.11 | $525.37 | -$38.73 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.2¢ | $613.95 | $507.56 | -$104.71 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $582.98 | $477.86 | -$3.51 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 76.8¢ | $544.51 | $473.19 | -$67.27 | 46% 800-941 (1741) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 77.7¢ | $480.51 | $448.76 | -$31.75 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $450.46 | $429.42 | -$21.04 | 29% 534-1288 (1822) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 75.8¢ | $400.04 | $403.44 | +$3.4 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 78.8¢ | $391.62 | $396 | +$4.38 | 45% 635-768 (1403) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $379.65 | $330.21 | -$49.44 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.3¢ | $271.8 | $330.21 | +$58.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.9¢ | $107.85 | — | -$107.85 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $323.38 | $393.43 | +$70.04 | 52% 641-593 (1234) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 80¢ | $347.87 | $355.54 | +$7.67 | 50% 1904-1877 (3781) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 73.1¢ | $264.4 | $297.23 | +$32.83 | 58% 761-550 (1311) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $289.19 | $260.17 | -$29.02 | 45% 549-681 (1230) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 71.2¢ | $225.37 | $235.74 | +$23.97 | 52% 697-654 (1351) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $227.41 | $243.07 | +$15.66 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $187.27 | $243.07 | +$55.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.7¢ | $40.14 | — | -$40.14 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 29.6¢ | $721.4 | — | -$183.11 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $179.53 | $191.06 | +$12.22 | 55% 713-588 (1301) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.5¢ | $136.7 | $191.06 | +$54.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.9¢ | $41.89 | — | -$42.14 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 76¢ | $202.63 | $177.64 | -$20.55 | 54% 4397-3814 (8211) |
Invested
$8,574
Value
—
PnL
$-6.8K
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
676-5 (681)
Invested
$1,048.88
Value
$959.28
PnL
-$89.59
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$950
Value
$935
PnL
+$2.2
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$787.91
Value
$832.63
PnL
+$44.72
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
machinelearnedInvested
$503.34
Value
$620
PnL
+$116.66
Record
45%
871-1082 (1953)
Invested
$564.11
Value
$525.37
PnL
-$38.73
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$613.95
Value
$507.56
PnL
-$104.71
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Invested
$582.98
Value
$477.86
PnL
-$3.51
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$544.51
Value
$473.19
PnL
-$67.27
Record
46%
800-941 (1741)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$480.51
Value
$448.76
PnL
-$31.75
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$450.46
Value
$429.42
PnL
-$21.04
Record
29%
534-1288 (1822)
Invested
$400.04
Value
$403.44
PnL
+$3.4
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
Invested
$391.62
Value
$396
PnL
+$4.38
Record
45%
635-768 (1403)
Invested
$379.65
Value
$330.21
PnL
-$49.44
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Both legs:
Invested
$323.38
Value
$393.43
PnL
+$70.04
Record
52%
641-593 (1234)
Invested
$347.87
Value
$355.54
PnL
+$7.67
Record
50%
1904-1877 (3781)
Invested
$264.4
Value
$297.23
PnL
+$32.83
Record
58%
761-550 (1311)
Invested
$289.19
Value
$260.17
PnL
-$29.02
Record
45%
549-681 (1230)
Invested
$225.37
Value
$235.74
PnL
+$23.97
Record
52%
697-654 (1351)
Invested
$227.41
Value
$243.07
PnL
+$15.66
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
Both legs:
Invested
$721.4
Value
—
PnL
-$183.11
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Invested
$179.53
Value
$191.06
PnL
+$12.22
Record
55%
713-588 (1301)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$202.63
Value
$177.64
PnL
-$20.55
Record
54%
4397-3814 (8211)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $959.28
soswald1
Down — $935
blue.birds
Down — $832.63
machinelearned
Down — $620
stepahead
Down — $525.37
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $507.56
ByteBadger92
Down — $477.86