Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-12.7K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 59 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%40 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares15,809

Combined PnL$-13.3K

Down38 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,052

Combined PnL+$635.66

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-7.5K	57% 282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	37% 117-200 (317)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 95.2¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$133.03	60% 825-557 (1382)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.7¢	$525.62	$490.4	+$2.03	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
machinelearned	Downavg 79.8¢	$463.33	$580.39	+$117.06	45% 871-1082 (1953)
ST stepahead	Downavg 83.5¢	$278.12	$258.04	-$20.08	55% 4157-3431 (7588)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 95.6¢	$255.27	$225	-$29.33	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 82.6¢	$158.66	$182.2	+$23.54	45% 549-681 (1230)
AL almach	Downavg 65¢	$331.43	$178.33	+$168.57	50% 1107-1127 (2234)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 25¢	$256.02	—	-$256.02	46% 800-941 (1741)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 30.1¢	$202.74	—	-$202.74	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$163.41	$150.73	-$12.68	59% 786-538 (1324)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.7¢	$121.69	$150.73	+$29.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$41.71	—	-$41.71
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 83.4¢	$143.31	$148.48	+$6.58	29% 534-1288 (1822)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 87¢	$122.54	$120	-$2.54	45% 635-768 (1403)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 88.6¢	$124.97	$119.06	-$5.91	50% 621-622 (1243)
FL flippingsharks	Downavg 66¢	$105.82	$160.33	+$54.51	38% 493-800 (1293)
BO bosona	Downavg 93¢	$97.64	$102.78	+$5.14	51% 4353-4244 (8597)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 23.5¢	$144.34	—	-$144.34	43% 591-772 (1363)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$52.37	$85.57	+$33.2	49% 596-626 (1222)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 93¢	$79.88	$84.49	+$4.61	52% 641-593 (1234)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 17.2¢	$132.74	—	-$91.74	52% 4550-4257 (8807)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$39.36	$53.68	+$14.32	66% 2874-1453 (4327)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$63.09	—	-$63.09	51% 782-744 (1526)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 89¢	$44.5	$50	+$5.5	49% 3898-3999 (7897)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 65¢	$36.62	$30	-$6.62	50% 3683-3639 (7322)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,666

Value

—

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

57%

282-217 (499)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

37%

117-200 (317)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,641.24

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$133.03

Record

60%

825-557 (1382)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$525.62

Value

$490.4

PnL

+$2.03

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$463.33

Value

$580.39

PnL

+$117.06

Record

45%

871-1082 (1953)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$278.12

Value

$258.04

PnL

-$20.08

Record

55%

4157-3431 (7588)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$255.27

Value

$225

PnL

-$29.33

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$158.66

Value

$182.2

PnL

+$23.54

Record

45%

549-681 (1230)

almach

Down

Invested

$331.43

Value

$178.33

PnL

+$168.57

Record

50%

1107-1127 (2234)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$256.02

Value

—

PnL

-$256.02

Record

46%

800-941 (1741)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$202.74

Value

—

PnL

-$202.74

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.41

Value

$150.73

PnL

-$12.68

Record

59%

786-538 (1324)

Both legs:

Down$121.6980.7¢+$29.04

Up$41.7125.7¢-$41.71

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$143.31

Value

$148.48

PnL

+$6.58

Record

29%

534-1288 (1822)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$122.54

Value

$120

PnL

-$2.54

Record

45%

635-768 (1403)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$124.97

Value

$119.06

PnL

-$5.91

Record

50%

621-622 (1243)

flippingsharks

Down

Invested

$105.82

Value

$160.33

PnL

+$54.51

Record

38%

493-800 (1293)

bosona

Down

Invested

$97.64

Value

$102.78

PnL

+$5.14

Record

51%

4353-4244 (8597)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$144.34

Value

—

PnL

-$144.34

Record

43%

591-772 (1363)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359<$100

Down

Invested

$52.37

Value

$85.57

PnL

+$33.2

Record

49%

596-626 (1222)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$79.88

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$4.61

Record

52%

641-593 (1234)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$132.74

Value

—

PnL

-$91.74

Record

52%

4550-4257 (8807)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$39.36

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$14.32

Record

66%

2874-1453 (4327)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$63.09

Value

—

PnL

-$63.09

Record

51%

782-744 (1526)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$44.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$5.5

Record

49%

3898-3999 (7897)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$36.62

Value

$30

PnL

-$6.62

Record

50%

3683-3639 (7322)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 59 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%40 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x74712171...b74936

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794592500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $2.8K

+$133.03

ByteBadger92

Down — $490.4

+$2.03

machinelearned

Down — $580.39

+$117.06

stepahead

Down — $258.04

-$20.08

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $225

-$29.33

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down — $182.2

+$23.54

almach

Down — $178.33

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0