Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.2K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Signal

40 of 53 top traders (75%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up40 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares29,830

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,548

Combined PnL-$631.24

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.4K	+$192.23	57% 282-217 (499)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$27.44	37% 117-200 (317)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$20.62	45% 550-680 (1230)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 46.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$388.46	43% 591-772 (1363)
BO bosona	Upavg 52.3¢	$791	$1.5K	+$720.72	51% 4353-4244 (8597)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 53.9¢	$749.63	$906.06	+$268.03	46% 800-941 (1741)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79¢	$796.49	$844.36	+$47.87	29% 534-1288 (1822)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 59.2¢	$834.74	$829.9	-$4.84	52% 4550-4257 (8807)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 50.3¢	$504.88	$722.67	+$217.79	45% 635-768 (1403)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$627.43	$608.25	-$19.18	60% 825-557 (1382)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$271.57	—	-$271.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$355.85	$608.25	+$252.4
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.6¢	$564.1	$497.68	+$10.55	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 74.2¢	$501	$471.69	+$77.67	50% 1904-1877 (3781)
NIULAI4	Upavg 62.3¢	$345.95	$467.38	+$121.43	24% 361-1131 (1492)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 46.9¢	$340.19	$437.97	+$97.78	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 80¢	$356.4	$441.6	+$85.2	49% 596-626 (1222)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 63.1¢	$265.52	$416.37	+$150.84	49% 1538-1576 (3114)
ST stepahead	Upavg 68¢	$392.27	$363.09	-$29.18	55% 4157-3431 (7588)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 68.2¢	$344.51	$287.63	-$56.87	55% 713-588 (1301)
MO mo-money	Upavg 44.4¢	$467.65	$1.1K	+$584.9	49% 1097-1145 (2242)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 78.5¢	$249.88	$271.61	+$21.73	45% 549-681 (1230)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 66.4¢	$176.4	$246.52	+$70.11	54% 694-603 (1297)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$299.3	$373.22	+$73.91	58% 761-550 (1311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$242.56	$373.22	+$130.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$56.74	—	-$56.74
AL almach	Upavg 50.2¢	$464.13	$920.26	+$456.13	50% 1107-1127 (2234)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$247.73	$231.79	-$15.94	59% 771-528 (1299)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$103.85	—	-$103.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$143.88	$231.79	+$87.91
PB PBot-5CTR	Downavg 45.3¢	$161.69	—	-$161.69	49% 1020-1054 (2074)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,813

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$192.23

Record

57%

282-217 (499)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$27.44

Record

37%

117-200 (317)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$20.62

Record

45%

550-680 (1230)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,121.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$388.46

Record

43%

591-772 (1363)

bosona

Invested

$791

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$720.72

Record

51%

4353-4244 (8597)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$749.63

Value

$906.06

PnL

+$268.03

Record

46%

800-941 (1741)

ply-pm0

Invested

$796.49

Value

$844.36

PnL

+$47.87

Record

29%

534-1288 (1822)

blue.birds

Invested

$834.74

Value

$829.9

PnL

-$4.84

Record

52%

4550-4257 (8807)

GoodFallen

Invested

$504.88

Value

$722.67

PnL

+$217.79

Record

45%

635-768 (1403)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$627.43

Value

$608.25

PnL

-$19.18

Record

60%

825-557 (1382)

Both legs:

Down$271.5741.7¢-$271.57

Up$355.8558.5¢+$252.4

ByteBadger92

Invested

$564.1

Value

$497.68

PnL

+$10.55

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$501

Value

$471.69

PnL

+$77.67

Record

50%

1904-1877 (3781)

NIULAI4

Invested

$345.95

Value

$467.38

PnL

+$121.43

Record

24%

361-1131 (1492)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$340.19

Value

$437.97

PnL

+$97.78

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$356.4

Value

$441.6

PnL

+$85.2

Record

49%

596-626 (1222)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$265.52

Value

$416.37

PnL

+$150.84

Record

49%

1538-1576 (3114)

stepahead

Invested

$392.27

Value

$363.09

PnL

-$29.18

Record

55%

4157-3431 (7588)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$344.51

Value

$287.63

PnL

-$56.87

Record

55%

713-588 (1301)

mo-money

Invested

$467.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$584.9

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$249.88

Value

$271.61

PnL

+$21.73

Record

45%

549-681 (1230)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$176.4

Value

$246.52

PnL

+$70.11

Record

54%

694-603 (1297)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$299.3

Value

$373.22

PnL

+$73.91

Record

58%

761-550 (1311)

Both legs:

Up$242.5665¢+$130.66

Down$56.7445.7¢-$56.74

almach

Invested

$464.13

Value

$920.26

PnL

+$456.13

Record

50%

1107-1127 (2234)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$247.73

Value

$231.79

PnL

-$15.94

Record

59%

771-528 (1299)

Both legs:

Down$103.8549.2¢-$103.85

Up$143.8862.1¢+$87.91

PBot-5CTR

Down

Invested

$161.69

Value

—

PnL

-$161.69

Record

49%

1020-1054 (2074)

Smart Money Signal

40 of 53 top traders (75%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4aab32f8...524d9b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794592200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.4K

+$192.23

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$27.44

machine-earning

Up — $3.4K

-$20.62

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.5K

+$388.46

bosona

Up — $1.5K

+$720.72

CrouchPredictions

Up — $906.06

+$268.03

ply-pm0

Up — $844.36

+$47.87

blue.birds

Up — $829.9

-$4.84

GoodFallen

Up — $722.67

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded