Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
52
Up 35%
9 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-17.2K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 52 top traders (35%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.2K | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 37% 117-200 (317) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 550-680 (1230) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$31.29 | 99% 676-5 (681) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 83¢ | $703.49 | $780.91 | +$77.41 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 81.5¢ | $649.77 | $607.57 | -$42.2 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.1¢ | $556.53 | $598.44 | +$41.91 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 45.2¢ | $451.98 | — | -$451.98 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $564.21 | $480.89 | -$5.45 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 82.4¢ | $395.52 | $369.62 | -$25.9 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.4¢ | $304.42 | $369.62 | +$65.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.2¢ | $91.1 | — | -$91.1 | |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 94.5¢ | $348.39 | $300 | -$48.39 | 51% 297-283 (580) |
BO bosona | Downavg 98.8¢ | $345.5 | $278.8 | -$66.7 | 51% 4353-4244 (8597) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 89.6¢ | $244.33 | $272.63 | +$28.3 | 59% 771-528 (1299) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $263.99 | $238.51 | -$25.48 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.4¢ | $165.46 | $238.51 | +$73.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.5¢ | $98.53 | — | -$98.53 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $307.51 | $202.12 | -$105.39 | 52% 641-593 (1234) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.8¢ | $181.53 | $202.12 | +$20.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.2¢ | $125.99 | — | -$125.99 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 95.4¢ | $198.75 | $200.99 | +$2.24 | 59% 786-538 (1324) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $171.97 | $185.86 | +$13.89 | 45% 549-681 (1230) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 92.3¢ | $171.6 | $180 | +$8.4 | 58% 761-550 (1311) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $201.62 | $179 | -$22.62 | 49% 594-621 (1215) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 79.4¢ | $150.08 | $146.19 | -$3.18 | 55% 713-588 (1301) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 78.5¢ | $164.52 | $134.99 | -$29.53 | 45% 635-768 (1403) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $132.72 | $110.65 | -$22.07 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.3¢ | $98.84 | $110.65 | +$11.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.4¢ | $33.88 | — | -$33.88 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 83¢ | $107.88 | $129.77 | +$21.88 | 51% 623-595 (1218) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 70.4¢ | $76.58 | $106.11 | +$29.53 | 52% 697-654 (1351) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 20.5¢ | $104.49 | $50 | -$54.49 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.5¢ | $61.49 | — | -$61.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86¢ | $43 | $50 | +$7 |
Invested
$8,986
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
550-680 (1230)
Invested
$3,097.43
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$31.29
Record
99%
676-5 (681)
Invested
$703.49
Value
$780.91
PnL
+$77.41
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$649.77
Value
$607.57
PnL
-$42.2
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
Invested
$556.53
Value
$598.44
PnL
+$41.91
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$451.98
Value
—
PnL
-$451.98
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
Invested
$564.21
Value
$480.89
PnL
-$5.45
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$395.52
Value
$369.62
PnL
-$25.9
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Both legs:
Invested
$348.39
Value
$300
PnL
-$48.39
Record
51%
297-283 (580)
Invested
$345.5
Value
$278.8
PnL
-$66.7
Record
51%
4353-4244 (8597)
Invested
$244.33
Value
$272.63
PnL
+$28.3
Record
59%
771-528 (1299)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$263.99
Value
$238.51
PnL
-$25.48
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Both legs:
Invested
$307.51
Value
$202.12
PnL
-$105.39
Record
52%
641-593 (1234)
Both legs:
Invested
$198.75
Value
$200.99
PnL
+$2.24
Record
59%
786-538 (1324)
Invested
$171.97
Value
$185.86
PnL
+$13.89
Record
45%
549-681 (1230)
Invested
$171.6
Value
$180
PnL
+$8.4
Record
58%
761-550 (1311)
Invested
$201.62
Value
$179
PnL
-$22.62
Record
49%
594-621 (1215)
Invested
$150.08
Value
$146.19
PnL
-$3.18
Record
55%
713-588 (1301)
Invested
$164.52
Value
$134.99
PnL
-$29.53
Record
45%
635-768 (1403)
Invested
$132.72
Value
$110.65
PnL
-$22.07
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.88
Value
$129.77
PnL
+$21.88
Record
51%
623-595 (1218)
Invested
$76.58
Value
$106.11
PnL
+$29.53
Record
52%
697-654 (1351)
Invested
$104.49
Value
$50
PnL
-$54.49
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $780.91
stepahead
Down — $607.57
blue.birds
Down — $598.44
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $480.89
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded