Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

20 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.7K

Combined PnL

$402.21

Smart Money Signal

34 of 53 top traders (64%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%40 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up34 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares8,961

Combined PnL+$896.75

Down19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,468

Combined PnL-$494.53

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.4K	-$87.93	57% 282-217 (499)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.9K	—	$-4.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.7K	$7.4K	+$4.2K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$6.64	37% 117-200 (317)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$99.05	45% 550-680 (1230)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-2.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.7K	+$1.9K
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	72% 1328-513 (1841)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 93.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$27.41	60% 825-557 (1382)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$948.57	$961.42	+$12.85	98% 2839-60 (2899)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	51% 2752-2659 (5411)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$531.65	$489.43	-$2.03	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$246.03	—	-$250.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$250.29	$489.43	+$248.57
machinelearned	Upavg 93¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$83.04	45% 871-1082 (1953)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 30.9¢	$373.85	$263.35	-$110.5	46% 800-941 (1741)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$191.43	—	-$191.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.3¢	$182.42	$263.35	+$80.93
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$484.29	$338.55	-$87.56	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.5¢	$168.45	—	-$163.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$251.71	$338.55	+$76.01
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 64.8¢	$162.39	$138.05	-$24.34	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 30.4¢	$236.35	$193.18	-$43.17	43% 591-772 (1363)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.4¢	$128.57	—	-$128.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$107.77	$193.18	+$85.4
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48¢	$383.97	$799.94	+$415.97	51% 624-605 (1229)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 92.7¢	$256.64	$253.5	-$3.14	49% 594-621 (1215)
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.8¢	$21.73	—	-$21.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.7¢	$234.91	$253.5	+$18.59
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$200.4	$167.4	-$33	29% 534-1288 (1822)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$109.86	—	-$109.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.1¢	$90.54	$167.4	+$76.86
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 52.8¢	$156.71	—	-$156.71	49% 1538-1576 (3114)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 67.4¢	$137.96	$175.08	+$37.11	55% 4157-3431 (7588)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$20	—	-$20
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.4¢	$117.96	$175.08	+$57.11
SU suntoriCTR	Downavg 44¢	$112.22	—	-$93.91	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 57.7¢	$117.08	—	-$117.08	51% 782-744 (1526)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 95.4¢	$126.48	$126.07	-$0.41	55% 713-588 (1301)
└ Down leg	Downavg 7¢	$6.16	—	-$6.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 95.4¢	$120.32	$126.07	+$5.75
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$58.32	$84.48	+$26.17	51% 628-607 (1235)
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.6¢	$8.47	—	-$8.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$49.85	$84.48	+$34.64
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$104.99	$99.98	-$5.01	52% 641-593 (1234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$57	—	-$57
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$47.99	$99.98	+$51.99
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$127.23	$176.17	+$48.94	45% 635-768 (1403)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.6¢	$108.57	$176.17	+$67.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$18.66	—	-$18.66
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 7.2¢	$10.66	—	-$10.66	32% 829-1726 (2555)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,888

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$87.93

Record

57%

282-217 (499)

Both legs:

Down$3,911.7750¢$-4.3K

Up$3,701.4650¢+$4.2K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$6.64

Record

37%

117-200 (317)

Both legs:

Down$2,417.5450¢$-2.5K

Up$2,482.4950¢+$2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$99.05

Record

45%

550-680 (1230)

Both legs:

Down$1,898.8450¢$-2.0K

Up$1,859.2750¢+$1.9K

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

72%

1328-513 (1841)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,485.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$27.41

Record

60%

825-557 (1382)

hoodquant

Invested

$948.57

Value

$961.42

PnL

+$12.85

Record

98%

2839-60 (2899)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2752-2659 (5411)

Both legs:

Down$47550¢-$475

Up$47550¢+$475

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$531.65

Value

$489.43

PnL

-$2.03

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Down$246.0349.7¢-$250.6

Up$250.2951.1¢+$248.57

machinelearned

Invested

$1,116.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$83.04

Record

45%

871-1082 (1953)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$373.85

Value

$263.35

PnL

-$110.5

Record

46%

800-941 (1741)

Both legs:

Down$191.4330.9¢-$191.43

Up$182.4269.3¢+$80.93

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$484.29

Value

$338.55

PnL

-$87.56

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

Both legs:

Down$168.4532.5¢-$163.57

Up$251.7174.3¢+$76.01

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$162.39

Value

$138.05

PnL

-$24.34

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$236.35

Value

$193.18

PnL

-$43.17

Record

43%

591-772 (1363)

Both legs:

Down$128.5730.4¢-$128.57

Up$107.7755.8¢+$85.4

PBot-6

Invested

$383.97

Value

$799.94

PnL

+$415.97

Record

51%

624-605 (1229)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$256.64

Value

$253.5

PnL

-$3.14

Record

49%

594-621 (1215)

Both legs:

Down$21.736.8¢-$21.73

Up$234.9192.7¢+$18.59

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$200.4

Value

$167.4

PnL

-$33

Record

29%

534-1288 (1822)

Both legs:

Down$109.8633.3¢-$109.86

Up$90.5454.1¢+$76.86

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$156.71

Value

—

PnL

-$156.71

Record

49%

1538-1576 (3114)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$137.96

Value

$175.08

PnL

+$37.11

Record

55%

4157-3431 (7588)

Both legs:

Down$2015¢-$20

Up$117.9667.4¢+$57.11

suntoriCTR

Down

Invested

$112.22

Value

—

PnL

-$93.91

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$117.08

Value

—

PnL

-$117.08

Record

51%

782-744 (1526)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$126.48

Value

$126.07

PnL

-$0.41

Record

55%

713-588 (1301)

Both legs:

Down$6.167¢-$6.16

Up$120.3295.4¢+$5.75

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$58.32

Value

$84.48

PnL

+$26.17

Record

51%

628-607 (1235)

Both legs:

Down$8.477.6¢-$8.47

Up$49.8559¢+$34.64

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.99

Value

$99.98

PnL

-$5.01

Record

52%

641-593 (1234)

Both legs:

Down$5757¢-$57

Up$47.9948¢+$51.99

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$127.23

Value

$176.17

PnL

+$48.94

Record

45%

635-768 (1403)

Both legs:

Up$108.5761.6¢+$67.6

Down$18.6642.4¢-$18.66

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.66

Value

—

PnL

-$10.66

Record

32%

829-1726 (2555)

Smart Money Signal

34 of 53 top traders (64%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%40 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x00c73cf7...07f7a6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794591600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

BoneOhio

Up — $3.5K

+$35

Bonereaper

Up — $1.5K

-$27.41

hoodquant

Up — $961.42

+$12.85

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.03

machinelearned

Up — $1.2K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded