Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
73
Down 46%
$8.1K
$-18.2K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 73 top traders (45%)33 hold an outcome priced under 50%53 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.9K | 57% 282-217 (499) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 37% 117-200 (317) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 550-680 (1230) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$2.36 | 50% 1135-1122 (2257) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 94.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$29.52 | 60% 825-557 (1382) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$12.61 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$936.2 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.5¢ | $504.69 | — | -$488.24 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.5¢ | $390.68 | $424.66 | +$33.98 | 55% 4157-3431 (7588) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.3¢ | $347.03 | $297.98 | -$49.05 | 45% 871-1082 (1953) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99¢ | $311.8 | $275.49 | -$36.31 | 49% 1097-1145 (2242) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 81.9¢ | $210.03 | $240.06 | +$30.03 | 51% 297-283 (580) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 76.7¢ | $273.59 | $230.65 | -$18.04 | 43% 591-772 (1363) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 51.2¢ | $85.01 | $165.89 | +$80.88 | 51% 782-744 (1526) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80¢ | $155.08 | $132.88 | -$22.21 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 97.7¢ | $183.07 | $114.95 | -$48.5 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 79.5¢ | $104.04 | $109.77 | +$5.73 | 45% 635-768 (1403) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 49¢ | $74.57 | $100 | +$25.43 | 50% 621-622 (1243) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83.7¢ | $78 | $91.01 | +$13.01 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $77.91 | $85.39 | +$16.24 | 52% 697-654 (1351) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 79.5¢ | $67.58 | $84.99 | +$17.41 | 54% 694-603 (1297) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 72.9¢ | $62.35 | $57.7 | -$4.65 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $45.54 | $45 | -$0.54 | 55% 713-588 (1301) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 83.2¢ | $34 | $40.85 | +$6.85 | 58% 4784-3498 (8282) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $24.87 | $35 | +$10.13 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
Invested
$8,797
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
57%
282-217 (499)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
37%
117-200 (317)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
550-680 (1230)
Invested
$2,355.21
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$2.36
Record
50%
1135-1122 (2257)
Invested
$1,744.89
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$29.52
Record
60%
825-557 (1382)
Invested
$1,248.39
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.61
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$936.2
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$504.69
Value
—
PnL
-$488.24
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$390.68
Value
$424.66
PnL
+$33.98
Record
55%
4157-3431 (7588)
machinelearnedInvested
$347.03
Value
$297.98
PnL
-$49.05
Record
45%
871-1082 (1953)
Invested
$311.8
Value
$275.49
PnL
-$36.31
Record
49%
1097-1145 (2242)
Invested
$210.03
Value
$240.06
PnL
+$30.03
Record
51%
297-283 (580)
Invested
$273.59
Value
$230.65
PnL
-$18.04
Record
43%
591-772 (1363)
Invested
$85.01
Value
$165.89
PnL
+$80.88
Record
51%
782-744 (1526)
Invested
$155.08
Value
$132.88
PnL
-$22.21
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$183.07
Value
$114.95
PnL
-$48.5
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$104.04
Value
$109.77
PnL
+$5.73
Record
45%
635-768 (1403)
Invested
$74.57
Value
$100
PnL
+$25.43
Record
50%
621-622 (1243)
Invested
$78
Value
$91.01
PnL
+$13.01
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
Invested
$77.91
Value
$85.39
PnL
+$16.24
Record
52%
697-654 (1351)
Invested
$67.58
Value
$84.99
PnL
+$17.41
Record
54%
694-603 (1297)
Invested
$62.35
Value
$57.7
PnL
-$4.65
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$45.54
Value
$45
PnL
-$0.54
Record
55%
713-588 (1301)
Invested
$34
Value
$40.85
PnL
+$6.85
Record
58%
4784-3498 (8282)
Invested
$24.87
Value
$35
PnL
+$10.13
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $2.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.7K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $424.66
machinelearned
Up — $297.98