Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Signal

46 of 64 top traders (72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,418

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Up46 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares15,075

Combined PnL+$676.02

Down — 28%Up — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.3K	37% 107-186 (293)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$18.18	45% 546-672 (1218)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 69.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$315.74	50% 1861-1835 (3696)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 82.5¢	$1.0K	$994.53	-$32.92	50% 2434-2391 (4825)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64.2¢	$743.14	$827.51	+$86.7	43% 579-760 (1339)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81.9¢	$804.94	$815.4	+$10.46	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
ST stepahead	Upavg 75.8¢	$750.36	$774.36	+$24	55% 4139-3417 (7556)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 79.7¢	$680.72	$650.18	-$30.54	52% 288-268 (556)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 67.2¢	$700.1	$622.99	-$77.11	60% 815-543 (1358)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.2¢	$531.22	$498.63	+$3.27	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 75¢	$447.41	$433.07	-$13.49	55% 704-573 (1277)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 80.7¢	$628.64	$410.68	+$49.71	57% 271-208 (479)
machinelearned	Upavg 62.8¢	$252.34	$382.71	+$130.37	44% 856-1071 (1927)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 64.9¢	$378.79	$345.24	-$30.76	45% 622-757 (1379)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 76¢	$322.57	$242.43	-$80.14	46% 791-924 (1715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76¢	$184.21	$242.43	+$58.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.6¢	$138.36	—	-$138.36
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 85.5¢	$296.43	$304.7	+$8.26	29% 522-1276 (1798)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 90.1¢	$404.44	$227.94	-$176.5	51% 4332-4226 (8558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.1¢	$205.41	$227.94	+$22.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.8¢	$199.02	—	-$199.02
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 54.4¢	$201.47	$269.13	+$67.65	51% 1727-1644 (3371)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 70.8¢	$227.1	$268.91	+$41.81	51% 683-644 (1327)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 76.2¢	$245.44	$239.98	-$5.47	59% 772-528 (1300)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 46.7¢	$160.19	$205.32	+$45.13	49% 579-613 (1192)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$155.68	$141.51	-$14.18	49% 1074-1128 (2202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.9¢	$125.81	$141.51	+$15.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.7¢	$29.87	—	-$29.87
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 80.6¢	$170.84	$155.79	-$15.05	51% 615-597 (1212)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 61.8¢	$168.79	$162.07	-$6.72	59% 756-519 (1275)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 66.1¢	$142.19	$167.84	+$25.65	54% 4383-3805 (8188)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

37%

107-186 (293)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$18.18

Record

45%

546-672 (1218)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,064.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$315.74

Record

50%

1861-1835 (3696)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,027.44

Value

$994.53

PnL

-$32.92

Record

50%

2434-2391 (4825)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$743.14

Value

$827.51

PnL

+$86.7

Record

43%

579-760 (1339)

blue.birds

Invested

$804.94

Value

$815.4

PnL

+$10.46

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

stepahead

Invested

$750.36

Value

$774.36

PnL

+$24

Record

55%

4139-3417 (7556)

gansinimen

Invested

$680.72

Value

$650.18

PnL

-$30.54

Record

52%

288-268 (556)

Bonereaper

Invested

$700.1

Value

$622.99

PnL

-$77.11

Record

60%

815-543 (1358)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$531.22

Value

$498.63

PnL

+$3.27

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$447.41

Value

$433.07

PnL

-$13.49

Record

55%

704-573 (1277)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$628.64

Value

$410.68

PnL

+$49.71

Record

57%

271-208 (479)

machinelearned

Invested

$252.34

Value

$382.71

PnL

+$130.37

Record

44%

856-1071 (1927)

GoodFallen

Invested

$378.79

Value

$345.24

PnL

-$30.76

Record

45%

622-757 (1379)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$322.57

Value

$242.43

PnL

-$80.14

Record

46%

791-924 (1715)

Both legs:

Up$184.2176¢+$58.22

Down$138.3625.6¢-$138.36

ply-pm0

Invested

$296.43

Value

$304.7

PnL

+$8.26

Record

29%

522-1276 (1798)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$404.44

Value

$227.94

PnL

-$176.5

Record

51%

4332-4226 (8558)

Both legs:

Up$205.4190.1¢+$22.52

Down$199.0221.8¢-$199.02

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$201.47

Value

$269.13

PnL

+$67.65

Record

51%

1727-1644 (3371)

wzbbb

Invested

$227.1

Value

$268.91

PnL

+$41.81

Record

51%

683-644 (1327)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$245.44

Value

$239.98

PnL

-$5.47

Record

59%

772-528 (1300)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$160.19

Value

$205.32

PnL

+$45.13

Record

49%

579-613 (1192)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$155.68

Value

$141.51

PnL

-$14.18

Record

49%

1074-1128 (2202)

Both legs:

Up$125.8188.9¢+$15.69

Down$29.874.7¢-$29.87

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$170.84

Value

$155.79

PnL

-$15.05

Record

51%

615-597 (1212)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$168.79

Value

$162.07

PnL

-$6.72

Record

59%

756-519 (1275)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$142.19

Value

$167.84

PnL

+$25.65

Record

54%

4383-3805 (8188)

Smart Money Signal

46 of 64 top traders (72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfc0ecd3b...ca3536

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794587700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.3K

machine-earning

Up — $3.8K

+$18.18

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.2K

+$315.74

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $994.53

-$32.92

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $827.51

+$86.7

blue.birds

Up — $815.4

+$10.46

stepahead

Up — $774.36

+$24

gansinimen

Up — $650.18

-$30.54

Bonereaper

Up — $622.99

-$77.11

ByteBadger92

Up — $498.63

+$3.27

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