Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Up 70%
3 arb excluded
$13.7K
$-9.5K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 62 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$62.07 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 74.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$35.15 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 62¢ | $1.1K | $989.6 | -$119.57 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$877.36 | 51% 2709-2618 (5327) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 77.8¢ | $752.83 | $723.81 | -$29.02 | 55% 704-573 (1277) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 34.6¢ | $555.86 | $548.46 | -$7.4 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.2¢ | $203.97 | $548.46 | +$344.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.6¢ | $351.89 | — | -$351.89 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 62¢ | $761.74 | $654.34 | -$49.93 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 76.4¢ | $563.1 | $602.65 | +$39.54 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 81.8¢ | $604.2 | $552.54 | -$51.66 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 80.8¢ | $482.51 | $546.3 | +$63.8 | 51% 615-597 (1212) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $557.49 | $500.85 | +$15.31 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 64.9¢ | $499.73 | $479.21 | -$20.52 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 89.9¢ | $591.4 | $440.58 | -$150.82 | 44% 856-1071 (1927) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 82.4¢ | $391.61 | $462.02 | +$70.41 | 52% 627-584 (1211) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $443.73 | $450.98 | +$7.26 | 24% 350-1120 (1470) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71.4¢ | $473.15 | $422.02 | -$0.83 | 45% 622-757 (1379) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 82.6¢ | $364.87 | $406.86 | +$41.99 | 45% 538-668 (1206) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 48.3¢ | $431.23 | — | -$431.23 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 75.1¢ | $363.01 | $294.44 | -$68.57 | 54% 4383-3805 (8188) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 70.8¢ | $217.91 | $270.38 | +$52.46 | 58% 745-542 (1287) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 75.9¢ | $242.85 | $247.9 | +$5.05 | 59% 756-519 (1275) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 87.5¢ | $225.72 | $205.66 | -$20.05 | 59% 772-528 (1300) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $127.12 | $185.53 | +$58.41 | 50% 613-609 (1222) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
Invested
$1,451.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$62.07
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$1,227.06
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$35.15
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Invested
$1,109.17
Value
$989.6
PnL
-$119.57
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$877.36
Record
51%
2709-2618 (5327)
Invested
$752.83
Value
$723.81
PnL
-$29.02
Record
55%
704-573 (1277)
Invested
$555.86
Value
$548.46
PnL
-$7.4
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Both legs:
Invested
$761.74
Value
$654.34
PnL
-$49.93
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$563.1
Value
$602.65
PnL
+$39.54
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$604.2
Value
$552.54
PnL
-$51.66
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Invested
$482.51
Value
$546.3
PnL
+$63.8
Record
51%
615-597 (1212)
Invested
$557.49
Value
$500.85
PnL
+$15.31
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$499.73
Value
$479.21
PnL
-$20.52
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
machinelearnedInvested
$591.4
Value
$440.58
PnL
-$150.82
Record
44%
856-1071 (1927)
Invested
$391.61
Value
$462.02
PnL
+$70.41
Record
52%
627-584 (1211)
NIULAI4Invested
$443.73
Value
$450.98
PnL
+$7.26
Record
24%
350-1120 (1470)
Invested
$473.15
Value
$422.02
PnL
-$0.83
Record
45%
622-757 (1379)
Invested
$364.87
Value
$406.86
PnL
+$41.99
Record
45%
538-668 (1206)
Invested
$431.23
Value
—
PnL
-$431.23
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
FairValueMachineInvested
$363.01
Value
$294.44
PnL
-$68.57
Record
54%
4383-3805 (8188)
Invested
$217.91
Value
$270.38
PnL
+$52.46
Record
58%
745-542 (1287)
Invested
$242.85
Value
$247.9
PnL
+$5.05
Record
59%
756-519 (1275)
Invested
$225.72
Value
$205.66
PnL
-$20.05
Record
59%
772-528 (1300)
Invested
$127.12
Value
$185.53
PnL
+$58.41
Record
50%
613-609 (1222)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $1.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.2K
Bonereaper
Up — $989.6
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $723.81
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gansinimen
Up — $654.34
stepahead
Up — $602.65