Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Up 78%
1 arb excluded
$20.5K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
47 of 60 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | -$7.6 | 50% 1120-1110 (2230) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$18.8 | 47% 1170-1297 (2467) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 63.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$572.27 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
AL almach | Upavg 99.1¢ | $1.1K | $900.62 | -$168.15 | 49% 1086-1109 (2195) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99¢ | $772.49 | $655.1 | -$117.39 | 49% 1074-1128 (2202) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $546.47 | $490.4 | +$7.68 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
BO bosona | Upavg 99.5¢ | $631.78 | $467.44 | -$164.34 | 51% 4332-4226 (8558) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.8¢ | $404.54 | $445.09 | +$40.55 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 85.9¢ | $368.93 | $326.37 | -$42.56 | 44% 856-1071 (1927) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85.9¢ | $280.47 | $326.37 | +$45.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 4.7¢ | $88.46 | — | -$88.46 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 88.1¢ | $372.14 | $355.5 | -$16.52 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.1¢ | $337.6 | $346.58 | +$8.98 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 79¢ | $261.77 | $276.76 | +$14.99 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 75.6¢ | $207.99 | $249.77 | +$41.77 | 59% 772-528 (1300) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 69.3¢ | $286.37 | $224.14 | -$46.6 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 73.1¢ | $187.04 | $175.69 | -$11.36 | 55% 704-573 (1277) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 96¢ | $196.34 | $169 | -$27.34 | 49% 588-613 (1201) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $165.98 | $167.66 | +$1.68 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 77.7¢ | $130.32 | $156.05 | +$25.73 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 83¢ | $140.27 | $169 | +$28.73 | 45% 538-668 (1206) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 82.7¢ | $139.57 | $143.58 | +$4.01 | 59% 756-519 (1275) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 83.7¢ | $103.36 | $116.96 | +$13.6 | 58% 745-542 (1287) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 70¢ | $105 | $150 | +$45 | 72% 1307-501 (1808) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 68¢ | $106.22 | $100.83 | -$5.39 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
Invested
$9,015.61
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$7.6
Record
50%
1120-1110 (2230)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$2,581.2
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$18.8
Record
47%
1170-1297 (2467)
Invested
$1,009.5
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$572.27
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Invested
$1,068.77
Value
$900.62
PnL
-$168.15
Record
49%
1086-1109 (2195)
Invested
$772.49
Value
$655.1
PnL
-$117.39
Record
49%
1074-1128 (2202)
Invested
$546.47
Value
$490.4
PnL
+$7.68
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Invested
$631.78
Value
$467.44
PnL
-$164.34
Record
51%
4332-4226 (8558)
Invested
$404.54
Value
$445.09
PnL
+$40.55
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$368.93
Value
$326.37
PnL
-$42.56
Record
44%
856-1071 (1927)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$372.14
Value
$355.5
PnL
-$16.52
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$337.6
Value
$346.58
PnL
+$8.98
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$261.77
Value
$276.76
PnL
+$14.99
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Invested
$207.99
Value
$249.77
PnL
+$41.77
Record
59%
772-528 (1300)
Invested
$286.37
Value
$224.14
PnL
-$46.6
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$187.04
Value
$175.69
PnL
-$11.36
Record
55%
704-573 (1277)
Invested
$196.34
Value
$169
PnL
-$27.34
Record
49%
588-613 (1201)
Invested
$165.98
Value
$167.66
PnL
+$1.68
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
Invested
$130.32
Value
$156.05
PnL
+$25.73
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$140.27
Value
$169
PnL
+$28.73
Record
45%
538-668 (1206)
Invested
$139.57
Value
$143.58
PnL
+$4.01
Record
59%
756-519 (1275)
Invested
$103.36
Value
$116.96
PnL
+$13.6
Record
58%
745-542 (1287)
BoneOhioInvested
$105
Value
$150
PnL
+$45
Record
72%
1307-501 (1808)
Invested
$106.22
Value
$100.83
PnL
-$5.39
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $9.0K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $2.6K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.6K
almach
Up — $900.62
mo-money
Up — $655.1
ByteBadger92
Up — $490.4
bosona
Up — $467.44
blue.birds
Up — $445.09