Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 72%
4 arb excluded
$10.2K
$-6.9K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 60 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.8K | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 93.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$93.31 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.66 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $580.62 | $586.48 | +$5.86 | 99% 664-5 (669) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $573.44 | $484.97 | +$11.52 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59.8¢ | $418.03 | $441.63 | +$23.6 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 74¢ | $334.5 | $451.91 | +$117.41 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79¢ | $414.59 | $433.87 | +$26.48 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $355.28 | $767.28 | +$412 | 51% 609-588 (1197) |
BO bosona | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $344.95 | +$136.37 | 51% 4332-4226 (8558) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 66¢ | $268.5 | $300 | +$31.5 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.1¢ | $305.54 | $283.2 | -$22.34 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 45.2¢ | $255.46 | $228.13 | -$27.33 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.2¢ | $155.25 | — | -$155.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.9¢ | $100.21 | $228.13 | +$127.92 | |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $208.43 | $207.95 | -$0.48 | 49% 588-613 (1201) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.1¢ | $120.89 | $207.95 | +$87.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40¢ | $87.54 | — | -$87.54 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $174.5 | $200 | +$25.5 | 29% 522-1276 (1798) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $160.55 | $200 | +$39.45 | 45% 538-668 (1206) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.8¢ | $231.88 | $180 | -$51.88 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 59.5¢ | $135.57 | $170 | +$34.43 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 78¢ | $194.11 | $149.47 | -$44.64 | 55% 704-573 (1277) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 88.5¢ | $129.35 | $139.63 | +$10.27 | 59% 772-528 (1300) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $150.32 | $119.1 | -$31.22 | 51% 615-597 (1212) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 78.8¢ | $112.64 | $117.93 | +$5.28 | 58% 745-542 (1287) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.7¢ | $120.77 | $100 | -$20.77 | 52% 627-584 (1211) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $48 | $100 | +$52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.7¢ | $72.77 | — | -$72.77 | |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 46.7¢ | $55.99 | $109.06 | +$53.07 | 49% 993-1031 (2024) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
Invested
$1,632.13
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$93.31
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$1,451.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.66
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$580.62
Value
$586.48
PnL
+$5.86
Record
99%
664-5 (669)
Invested
$573.44
Value
$484.97
PnL
+$11.52
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Invested
$418.03
Value
$441.63
PnL
+$23.6
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$334.5
Value
$451.91
PnL
+$117.41
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Invested
$414.59
Value
$433.87
PnL
+$26.48
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$355.28
Value
$767.28
PnL
+$412
Record
51%
609-588 (1197)
Invested
$1,142.09
Value
$344.95
PnL
+$136.37
Record
51%
4332-4226 (8558)
Invested
$268.5
Value
$300
PnL
+$31.5
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$305.54
Value
$283.2
PnL
-$22.34
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Invested
$255.46
Value
$228.13
PnL
-$27.33
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Both legs:
Invested
$208.43
Value
$207.95
PnL
-$0.48
Record
49%
588-613 (1201)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.5
Value
$200
PnL
+$25.5
Record
29%
522-1276 (1798)
Invested
$160.55
Value
$200
PnL
+$39.45
Record
45%
538-668 (1206)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$231.88
Value
$180
PnL
-$51.88
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$135.57
Value
$170
PnL
+$34.43
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Invested
$194.11
Value
$149.47
PnL
-$44.64
Record
55%
704-573 (1277)
Invested
$129.35
Value
$139.63
PnL
+$10.27
Record
59%
772-528 (1300)
Invested
$150.32
Value
$119.1
PnL
-$31.22
Record
51%
615-597 (1212)
Invested
$112.64
Value
$117.93
PnL
+$5.28
Record
58%
745-542 (1287)
Invested
$120.77
Value
$100
PnL
-$20.77
Record
52%
627-584 (1211)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.99
Value
$109.06
PnL
+$53.07
Record
49%
993-1031 (2024)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.5K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
THG.
Down — $586.48
ByteBadger92
Down — $484.97
stepahead
Down — $441.63
uninformedfloww
Down — $451.91
blue.birds
Down — $433.87
PBot-6
Down — $767.28