Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
64
Up 32%
3 arb excluded
$11.2K
$-14.4K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 64 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.6K | 57% 271-208 (479) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$194.28 | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$73.42 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 49.5¢ | $911.21 | — | -$911.21 | 51% 609-588 (1197) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $535.14 | $484.14 | -$1.37 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.9¢ | $405.63 | $465.21 | +$63.42 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73.9¢ | $463.27 | $399.13 | -$44.53 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $304.11 | $416.35 | +$112.24 | 51% 611-584 (1195) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92.8¢ | $865.45 | $355.85 | -$29.51 | 49% 1074-1128 (2202) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 65.9¢ | $281.64 | $324.37 | +$42.73 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
AL almach | Downavg 87.3¢ | $291.84 | $279.44 | -$12.4 | 49% 1086-1109 (2195) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 33.5¢ | $335.88 | $220.04 | -$115.84 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.6¢ | $155.38 | $220.04 | +$64.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.5¢ | $180.5 | — | -$180.5 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.4¢ | $223.59 | $244.68 | +$21.08 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 98¢ | $382.4 | $200 | -$182.4 | 44% 856-1071 (1927) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73¢ | $242.03 | $190.76 | -$51.27 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 76.9¢ | $221.32 | $189.33 | -$32.09 | 55% 704-573 (1277) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 88.7¢ | $180.89 | $203.99 | +$23.1 | 72% 1307-501 (1808) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $194.88 | $173.74 | -$21.14 | 52% 627-584 (1211) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 65.7¢ | $96.56 | $147 | +$50.44 | 53% 69-60 (129) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 88.8¢ | $144.84 | $160 | +$15.16 | 44% 1633-2119 (3752) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 96¢ | $202.91 | $126.52 | -$76.38 | 51% 615-597 (1212) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $124.74 | $126 | +$1.26 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Upavg 26.9¢ | $115.73 | $105.7 | -$10.03 | 49% 588-613 (1201) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $52.74 | $105.7 | +$52.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.9¢ | $62.99 | — | -$62.99 | |
SP spartacray | Downavg 68.2¢ | $92.87 | $128.71 | +$35.85 | 58% 745-542 (1287) |
Invested
$8,961
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
57%
271-208 (479)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$194.28
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
Invested
$1,178.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$73.42
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Invested
$911.21
Value
—
PnL
-$911.21
Record
51%
609-588 (1197)
Invested
$535.14
Value
$484.14
PnL
-$1.37
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Invested
$405.63
Value
$465.21
PnL
+$63.42
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$463.27
Value
$399.13
PnL
-$44.53
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$304.11
Value
$416.35
PnL
+$112.24
Record
51%
611-584 (1195)
Invested
$865.45
Value
$355.85
PnL
-$29.51
Record
49%
1074-1128 (2202)
Invested
$281.64
Value
$324.37
PnL
+$42.73
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Invested
$291.84
Value
$279.44
PnL
-$12.4
Record
49%
1086-1109 (2195)
Invested
$335.88
Value
$220.04
PnL
-$115.84
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Both legs:
Invested
$223.59
Value
$244.68
PnL
+$21.08
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
machinelearnedInvested
$382.4
Value
$200
PnL
-$182.4
Record
44%
856-1071 (1927)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$242.03
Value
$190.76
PnL
-$51.27
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$221.32
Value
$189.33
PnL
-$32.09
Record
55%
704-573 (1277)
BoneOhioInvested
$180.89
Value
$203.99
PnL
+$23.1
Record
72%
1307-501 (1808)
Invested
$194.88
Value
$173.74
PnL
-$21.14
Record
52%
627-584 (1211)
BossgirlInvested
$96.56
Value
$147
PnL
+$50.44
Record
53%
69-60 (129)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$144.84
Value
$160
PnL
+$15.16
Record
44%
1633-2119 (3752)
Invested
$202.91
Value
$126.52
PnL
-$76.38
Record
51%
615-597 (1212)
Invested
$124.74
Value
$126
PnL
+$1.26
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$115.73
Value
$105.7
PnL
-$10.03
Record
49%
588-613 (1201)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.87
Value
$128.71
PnL
+$35.85
Record
58%
745-542 (1287)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $484.14
Bonereaper
Down — $465.21
blue.birds
Down — $399.13
0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894
Down — $416.35
mo-money
Down — $355.85