Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
60
Down 49%
8 arb excluded
$12.1K
$-21.0K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 60 top traders (50%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.4K | 57% 271-208 (479) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 664-5 (669) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 53.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$118.27 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 48.6¢ | $912.82 | — | -$912.82 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 68.6¢ | $1.2K | $787.94 | +$78.95 | 49% 1074-1128 (2202) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 51.8¢ | $680.15 | — | -$680.15 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 37.3¢ | $776.21 | — | -$729.31 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 44.6¢ | $753.93 | — | -$735.73 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 48.1¢ | $504.02 | — | -$504.02 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 55.8¢ | $421.02 | $559.21 | +$140.49 | 55% 704-573 (1277) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 39.2¢ | $380.77 | $571.13 | +$190.36 | 51% 683-644 (1327) |
BO bosona | Upavg 70.1¢ | $397.8 | $500.32 | +$102.53 | 51% 4332-4226 (8558) |
AL almach | Upavg 68.6¢ | $771.27 | $511.25 | +$230.91 | 49% 1086-1109 (2195) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $584.76 | — | -$478.19 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 32.5¢ | $294.02 | — | -$293.17 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $338.06 | $337.99 | -$0.07 | 50% 613-609 (1222) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $422.05 | $263.97 | -$158.08 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.3¢ | $169.82 | $263.97 | +$94.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $252.23 | — | -$252.23 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 54¢ | $311.99 | $384.02 | +$72.03 | 51% 611-584 (1195) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $301.67 | $311.7 | +$10.03 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $140.72 | $311.7 | +$170.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $160.95 | — | -$160.95 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 37.3¢ | $107.04 | $287.19 | +$180.14 | 58% 4758-3485 (8243) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 50.3¢ | $260.64 | — | -$260.64 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 56.1¢ | $270.95 | — | -$270.95 | 45% 622-757 (1379) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 18.4¢ | $273.59 | — | -$273.59 | 49% 579-613 (1192) |
Invested
$8,849
Value
—
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
57%
271-208 (479)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
664-5 (669)
Invested
$1,063.34
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$118.27
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$912.82
Value
—
PnL
-$912.82
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$1,248.65
Value
$787.94
PnL
+$78.95
Record
49%
1074-1128 (2202)
Invested
$680.15
Value
—
PnL
-$680.15
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$776.21
Value
—
PnL
-$729.31
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$753.93
Value
—
PnL
-$735.73
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Invested
$504.02
Value
—
PnL
-$504.02
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Invested
$421.02
Value
$559.21
PnL
+$140.49
Record
55%
704-573 (1277)
Invested
$380.77
Value
$571.13
PnL
+$190.36
Record
51%
683-644 (1327)
Invested
$397.8
Value
$500.32
PnL
+$102.53
Record
51%
4332-4226 (8558)
Invested
$771.27
Value
$511.25
PnL
+$230.91
Record
49%
1086-1109 (2195)
Invested
$584.76
Value
—
PnL
-$478.19
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$294.02
Value
—
PnL
-$293.17
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$338.06
Value
$337.99
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
613-609 (1222)
Invested
$422.05
Value
$263.97
PnL
-$158.08
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Both legs:
Invested
$311.99
Value
$384.02
PnL
+$72.03
Record
51%
611-584 (1195)
Invested
$301.67
Value
$311.7
PnL
+$10.03
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.04
Value
$287.19
PnL
+$180.14
Record
58%
4758-3485 (8243)
Invested
$260.64
Value
—
PnL
-$260.64
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$270.95
Value
—
PnL
-$270.95
Record
45%
622-757 (1379)
Invested
$273.59
Value
—
PnL
-$273.59
Record
49%
579-613 (1192)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
blue.birds
Up — $1.2K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $787.94
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
gansinimen
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0