Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
62
Up 31%
3 arb excluded
$11.4K
$-16.1K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 62 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.9K | 57% 271-208 (479) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 89.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$2.47 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$15.93 | 99% 664-5 (669) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $975.32 | $986 | +$10.68 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
BO bosona | Downavg 70.8¢ | $525.53 | $734.05 | +$208.53 | 51% 4332-4226 (8558) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 65.7¢ | $340.08 | $510.52 | +$170.44 | 49% 1074-1128 (2202) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 73¢ | $431.72 | $486.71 | +$54.99 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $521.84 | $495 | +$4.3 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
AL almach | Downavg 73.9¢ | $367.59 | $450.12 | +$82.53 | 49% 1086-1109 (2195) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $270.23 | $418.62 | +$148.39 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 48.8¢ | $463.31 | — | -$463.31 | 51% 609-588 (1197) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 69.3¢ | $355.76 | $513.48 | +$157.72 | 44% 856-1071 (1927) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $330.23 | $315.12 | -$15.11 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 74.6¢ | $305.31 | $308.87 | +$3.56 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 69.9¢ | $243.2 | $271.19 | +$27.98 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 73.9¢ | $279.06 | $274.53 | -$2.21 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
SU suntoriARB<$100 | Upavg 33.5¢ | $857.92 | $116.17 | -$741.75 | 46% 2065-2415 (4480) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.5¢ | $755.13 | — | -$755.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.5¢ | $102.79 | $116.17 | +$13.38 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 68.9¢ | $159.64 | $231.61 | +$71.97 | 51% 683-644 (1327) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59.7¢ | $207.68 | $203.17 | -$4.51 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 29.8¢ | $288.56 | — | -$288.56 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $105.44 | $184.5 | +$79.06 | 49% 579-613 (1192) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 35.6¢ | $171.47 | — | -$171.47 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54.1¢ | $82.5 | $152.46 | +$69.96 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
Invested
$8,563
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
57%
271-208 (479)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
Invested
$1,782.2
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$2.47
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$1,576.93
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.93
Record
99%
664-5 (669)
Invested
$975.32
Value
$986
PnL
+$10.68
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$525.53
Value
$734.05
PnL
+$208.53
Record
51%
4332-4226 (8558)
Invested
$340.08
Value
$510.52
PnL
+$170.44
Record
49%
1074-1128 (2202)
Invested
$431.72
Value
$486.71
PnL
+$54.99
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Invested
$521.84
Value
$495
PnL
+$4.3
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Invested
$367.59
Value
$450.12
PnL
+$82.53
Record
49%
1086-1109 (2195)
Invested
$270.23
Value
$418.62
PnL
+$148.39
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
Invested
$463.31
Value
—
PnL
-$463.31
Record
51%
609-588 (1197)
machinelearnedInvested
$355.76
Value
$513.48
PnL
+$157.72
Record
44%
856-1071 (1927)
Invested
$330.23
Value
$315.12
PnL
-$15.11
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$305.31
Value
$308.87
PnL
+$3.56
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$243.2
Value
$271.19
PnL
+$27.98
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$279.06
Value
$274.53
PnL
-$2.21
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Invested
$857.92
Value
$116.17
PnL
-$741.75
Record
46%
2065-2415 (4480)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.64
Value
$231.61
PnL
+$71.97
Record
51%
683-644 (1327)
Invested
$207.68
Value
$203.17
PnL
-$4.51
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$288.56
Value
—
PnL
-$288.56
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Invested
$105.44
Value
$184.5
PnL
+$79.06
Record
49%
579-613 (1192)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$171.47
Value
—
PnL
-$171.47
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$82.5
Value
$152.46
PnL
+$69.96
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.8K
THG.
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $986
bosona
Down — $734.05
mo-money
Down — $510.52
CrouchPredictions
Down — $486.71
ByteBadger92
Down — $495