Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$-7.5K

Smart Money Signal

45 of 62 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,978

Combined PnL$-8.4K

Up45 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares18,669

Combined PnL+$921.39

Down — 27%Up — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-7.6K	57% 271-208 (479)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$11.82	37% 107-186 (293)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$37.25	45% 546-672 (1218)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 85.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$181.84	60% 815-543 (1358)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48¢	$580.89	$934.68	+$382.54	49% 1499-1549 (3048)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.3¢	$743.91	$747.67	+$3.76	50% 2434-2391 (4825)
machinelearned	Upavg 86.5¢	$791.04	$730.88	-$60.16	44% 856-1071 (1927)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 56¢	$608.39	$709.91	+$101.53	43% 579-760 (1339)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.4¢	$587.57	$496.67	+$2.73	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.4¢	$386.23	$432.99	+$46.77	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 73.6¢	$426.43	$423.28	-$3.15	46% 791-924 (1715)
ST stepahead	Upavg 61.4¢	$353.89	$352.68	-$1.21	55% 4139-3417 (7556)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 60.7¢	$437.79	$302.38	-$6.71	51% 1727-1644 (3371)
MO mo-money	Upavg 73.4¢	$261.93	$294.51	+$32.58	49% 1074-1128 (2202)
AL almach	Upavg 88.6¢	$763.79	$273.51	-$231.42	49% 1086-1109 (2195)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 81.7¢	$266.17	$253.49	-$12.68	51% 611-584 (1195)
SP spartacray	Upavg 71.4¢	$200.61	$257.78	+$57.18	58% 745-542 (1287)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 42.7¢	$257.93	—	-$257.93	45% 622-757 (1379)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 80.7¢	$215.78	$231.94	+$16.15	53% 680-593 (1273)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 65.5¢	$207.66	$197.98	-$9.68	54% 4383-3805 (8188)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$161.79	$130.47	-$31.32	52% 627-584 (1211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$83.2	$130.47	+$47.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.3¢	$78.58	—	-$78.58
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 49.4¢	$86.4	$149.67	+$63.27	59% 756-519 (1275)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.5¢	$129.18	$142.48	+$13.29	29% 522-1276 (1798)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$119.11	—	-$119.11	50% 613-609 (1222)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 42.4¢	$85.84	$187.9	+$102.06	51% 615-597 (1212)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,674

Value

—

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

57%

271-208 (479)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$11.82

Record

37%

107-186 (293)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$37.25

Record

45%

546-672 (1218)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,632.68

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$181.84

Record

60%

815-543 (1358)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$580.89

Value

$934.68

PnL

+$382.54

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$743.91

Value

$747.67

PnL

+$3.76

Record

50%

2434-2391 (4825)

machinelearned

Invested

$791.04

Value

$730.88

PnL

-$60.16

Record

44%

856-1071 (1927)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$608.39

Value

$709.91

PnL

+$101.53

Record

43%

579-760 (1339)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$587.57

Value

$496.67

PnL

+$2.73

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

blue.birds

Invested

$386.23

Value

$432.99

PnL

+$46.77

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$426.43

Value

$423.28

PnL

-$3.15

Record

46%

791-924 (1715)

stepahead

Invested

$353.89

Value

$352.68

PnL

-$1.21

Record

55%

4139-3417 (7556)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$437.79

Value

$302.38

PnL

-$6.71

Record

51%

1727-1644 (3371)

mo-money

Invested

$261.93

Value

$294.51

PnL

+$32.58

Record

49%

1074-1128 (2202)

almach

Invested

$763.79

Value

$273.51

PnL

-$231.42

Record

49%

1086-1109 (2195)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$266.17

Value

$253.49

PnL

-$12.68

Record

51%

611-584 (1195)

spartacray

Invested

$200.61

Value

$257.78

PnL

+$57.18

Record

58%

745-542 (1287)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$257.93

Value

—

PnL

-$257.93

Record

45%

622-757 (1379)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$215.78

Value

$231.94

PnL

+$16.15

Record

53%

680-593 (1273)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$207.66

Value

$197.98

PnL

-$9.68

Record

54%

4383-3805 (8188)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$161.79

Value

$130.47

PnL

-$31.32

Record

52%

627-584 (1211)

Both legs:

Up$83.263.8¢+$47.26

Down$78.5823.3¢-$78.58

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$86.4

Value

$149.67

PnL

+$63.27

Record

59%

756-519 (1275)

ply-pm0

Invested

$129.18

Value

$142.48

PnL

+$13.29

Record

29%

522-1276 (1798)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Down

Invested

$119.11

Value

—

PnL

-$119.11

Record

50%

613-609 (1222)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$85.84

Value

$187.9

PnL

+$102.06

Record

51%

615-597 (1212)

Smart Money Signal

45 of 62 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa2668fb8...56a498

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794585300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.6K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$11.82

machine-earning

Up — $3.7K

-$37.25

Bonereaper

Up — $1.8K

+$181.84

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $934.68

+$382.54

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $747.67

+$3.76

machinelearned

Up — $730.88

-$60.16

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $709.91

+$101.53

ByteBadger92

Up — $496.67

+$2.73

blue.birds

Up — $432.99

+$46.77

Trade on Polymarket