Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 87%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.9K

Combined PnL

-$720.62

Smart Money Signal

46 of 53 top traders (87%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up46 traders

Total Value$29.7K

Total Shares29,744

Combined PnL+$911.43

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,347

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up — 87%Down — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50.8¢	$8.8K	$8.0K	+$28.45	57% 271-208 (479)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$22.63	37% 107-186 (293)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$52.13	45% 546-672 (1218)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.9K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 664-5 (669)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$61.09	46% 791-924 (1715)
AL almach	Upavg 92.6¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$57.45	49% 1086-1109 (2195)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 83.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$21.38	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$938.73	-$0.22	51% 2709-2618 (5327)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$469.37	$938.73	+$471.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$470	—	-$471.9
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$893.66	$937.67	+$44.02	50% 2434-2391 (4825)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$700.11	$937.67	+$237.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$193.55	—	-$193.55
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.3¢	$902.82	$931.05	+$39.18	60% 815-543 (1358)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 81.8¢	$786.59	$787.85	+$1.26	45% 538-668 (1206)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 79.4¢	$773.09	$623.99	-$121.5	43% 579-760 (1339)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 76.5¢	$536.18	$540.85	+$4.68	53% 680-593 (1273)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$537.21	$495	+$5.47	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$250.93	$495	+$253.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$241.3	—	-$247.63
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 78.9¢	$494.36	$495.8	+$9.54	45% 622-757 (1379)
machinelearned	Upavg 77.5¢	$375.87	$472.35	+$96.47	44% 856-1071 (1927)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.1¢	$449.13	$470.39	+$24.06	51% 1727-1644 (3371)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$434.44	$407.07	-$27.37	55% 704-573 (1277)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$297.3	$407.07	+$109.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.8¢	$137.14	—	-$137.14
PB PBot-5	Upavg 58.9¢	$277.12	$410	+$145.48	49% 993-1031 (2024)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 43.7¢	$576.09	—	-$576.09	49% 1499-1549 (3048)
NIULAI4	Upavg 89.8¢	$325.88	$358.24	+$32.37	24% 350-1120 (1470)
MO mo-money	Upavg 70.4¢	$451.5	$372.16	+$61.04	49% 1074-1128 (2202)
ST stepahead	Upavg 81.4¢	$309.01	$336.14	+$27.13	55% 4139-3417 (7556)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 74.1¢	$303.16	$378.93	+$75.77	51% 611-584 (1195)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 71.5¢	$270.08	$308.94	+$50.25	51% 683-644 (1327)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,767.44

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$28.45

Record

57%

271-208 (479)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$22.63

Record

37%

107-186 (293)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$52.13

Record

45%

546-672 (1218)

Both legs:

Up$1,821.6950¢+$1.9K

Down$1,77050¢$-1.9K

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

664-5 (669)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,268.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$61.09

Record

46%

791-924 (1715)

almach

Invested

$1,492.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$57.45

Record

49%

1086-1109 (2195)

blue.birds

Invested

$1,067.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$21.38

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$938.73

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

2709-2618 (5327)

Both legs:

Up$469.3750¢+$471.68

Down$47050¢-$471.9

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$893.66

Value

$937.67

PnL

+$44.02

Record

50%

2434-2391 (4825)

Both legs:

Up$700.1174.7¢+$237.57

Down$193.5521¢-$193.55

Bonereaper

Invested

$902.82

Value

$931.05

PnL

+$39.18

Record

60%

815-543 (1358)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$786.59

Value

$787.85

PnL

+$1.26

Record

45%

538-668 (1206)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$773.09

Value

$623.99

PnL

-$121.5

Record

43%

579-760 (1339)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$536.18

Value

$540.85

PnL

+$4.68

Record

53%

680-593 (1273)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$537.21

Value

$495

PnL

+$5.47

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

Both legs:

Up$250.9350.7¢+$253.1

Down$241.347.1¢-$247.63

GoodFallen

Invested

$494.36

Value

$495.8

PnL

+$9.54

Record

45%

622-757 (1379)

machinelearned

Invested

$375.87

Value

$472.35

PnL

+$96.47

Record

44%

856-1071 (1927)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$449.13

Value

$470.39

PnL

+$24.06

Record

51%

1727-1644 (3371)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$434.44

Value

$407.07

PnL

-$27.37

Record

55%

704-573 (1277)

Both legs:

Up$297.373¢+$109.76

Down$137.1427.8¢-$137.14

PBot-5

Invested

$277.12

Value

$410

PnL

+$145.48

Record

49%

993-1031 (2024)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$576.09

Value

—

PnL

-$576.09

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

NIULAI4

Invested

$325.88

Value

$358.24

PnL

+$32.37

Record

24%

350-1120 (1470)

mo-money

Invested

$451.5

Value

$372.16

PnL

+$61.04

Record

49%

1074-1128 (2202)

stepahead

Invested

$309.01

Value

$336.14

PnL

+$27.13

Record

55%

4139-3417 (7556)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$303.16

Value

$378.93

PnL

+$75.77

Record

51%

611-584 (1195)

wzbbb

Invested

$270.08

Value

$308.94

PnL

+$50.25

Record

51%

683-644 (1327)

Smart Money Signal

46 of 53 top traders (87%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3662aee2...5f04a6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794585000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.0K

+$28.45

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$22.63

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$52.13

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.3K

+$61.09

almach

Up — $1.1K

-$57.45

blue.birds

Up — $1.0K

-$21.38

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.22

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$44.02

Bonereaper

Up — $931.05

+$39.18

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