Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 71%
2 arb excluded
$18.5K
$-8.6K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 59 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $7.8K | +$111.2 | 57% 271-208 (479) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 546-672 (1218) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 96.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$83.37 | 72% 1307-501 (1808) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.78 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 88.7¢ | $967.24 | $885.24 | -$81.6 | 46% 791-924 (1715) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 72.7¢ | $555.09 | $525.6 | -$29.49 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $548.04 | $501.53 | +$1.59 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
BO bosona | Upavg 76¢ | $435.47 | $500.56 | +$65.09 | 51% 4332-4226 (8558) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 73.2¢ | $450.17 | $461.46 | +$11.29 | 53% 680-593 (1273) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 76.5¢ | $368.29 | $340.19 | -$28.1 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 83.4¢ | $347.55 | $333.88 | -$13.67 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 85.8¢ | $297.44 | $338 | +$40.56 | 45% 538-668 (1206) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 61.9¢ | $327.01 | $300.53 | -$2 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 63.5¢ | $275.64 | $270.87 | -$4.72 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 73.8¢ | $276.46 | $247.59 | -$24.83 | 55% 704-573 (1277) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $161.88 | $279.47 | +$117.59 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 74.3¢ | $232.8 | $237.55 | +$4.75 | 45% 622-757 (1379) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $194.55 | $228.42 | +$33.87 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 95.1¢ | $195.28 | $171.98 | -$23.3 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 57.6¢ | $116.3 | $201.79 | +$85.49 | 49% 993-1031 (2024) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 16.8¢ | $306 | — | -$154.17 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 72.3¢ | $130.54 | $179.99 | +$49.45 | 54% 4383-3805 (8188) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $123.93 | $193.25 | +$69.32 | 51% 615-597 (1212) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 98¢ | $129.36 | $132 | +$2.64 | 38% 1088-1781 (2869) |
Invested
$8,514
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$111.2
Record
57%
271-208 (479)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
546-672 (1218)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,403.57
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$83.37
Record
72%
1307-501 (1808)
Invested
$1,067.22
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.78
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$967.24
Value
$885.24
PnL
-$81.6
Record
46%
791-924 (1715)
Invested
$555.09
Value
$525.6
PnL
-$29.49
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$548.04
Value
$501.53
PnL
+$1.59
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Invested
$435.47
Value
$500.56
PnL
+$65.09
Record
51%
4332-4226 (8558)
Invested
$450.17
Value
$461.46
PnL
+$11.29
Record
53%
680-593 (1273)
Invested
$368.29
Value
$340.19
PnL
-$28.1
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Invested
$347.55
Value
$333.88
PnL
-$13.67
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$297.44
Value
$338
PnL
+$40.56
Record
45%
538-668 (1206)
Invested
$327.01
Value
$300.53
PnL
-$2
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$275.64
Value
$270.87
PnL
-$4.72
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$276.46
Value
$247.59
PnL
-$24.83
Record
55%
704-573 (1277)
Invested
$161.88
Value
$279.47
PnL
+$117.59
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
Invested
$232.8
Value
$237.55
PnL
+$4.75
Record
45%
622-757 (1379)
Invested
$194.55
Value
$228.42
PnL
+$33.87
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$195.28
Value
$171.98
PnL
-$23.3
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$116.3
Value
$201.79
PnL
+$85.49
Record
49%
993-1031 (2024)
Invested
$306
Value
—
PnL
-$154.17
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
FairValueMachineInvested
$130.54
Value
$179.99
PnL
+$49.45
Record
54%
4383-3805 (8188)
Invested
$123.93
Value
$193.25
PnL
+$69.32
Record
51%
615-597 (1212)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$129.36
Value
$132
PnL
+$2.64
Record
38%
1088-1781 (2869)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $2.5K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $885.24
stepahead
Up — $525.6
ByteBadger92
Up — $501.53
bosona
Up — $500.56
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $461.46