Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 24% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 22%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$-8.2K

Smart Money Signal

10 of 42 top traders (24%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,974

Combined PnL$-8.6K

Down32 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,372

Combined PnL+$432.7

Up — 24%Down — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.6K	+$31.89	57% 207-158 (365)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	—	$-4.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.6K	+$4.2K
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	35% 46-85 (131)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.6K	45% 491-595 (1086)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0.2	51% 2358-2296 (4654)
machinelearned	Downavg 88¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$137.6	44% 759-983 (1742)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88¢	$568.36	$600.04	+$31.68	46% 687-811 (1498)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$388.08	$392	+$3.92	98% 2496-50 (2546)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 83.2¢	$390.59	$383.33	-$7.26	52% 4244-3980 (8224)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 75.5¢	$395.38	$372.27	-$23.11	42% 494-676 (1170)
BO bosona	Downavg 90.6¢	$282	$306.92	+$24.92	50% 4166-4088 (8254)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.2¢	$214.54	$253.23	+$38.69	55% 3998-3332 (7330)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 92.8¢	$207.22	$208.91	+$1.69	50% 569-558 (1127)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.8¢	$183.1	$211.23	+$28.13	55% 614-497 (1111)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$182.1	$167.56	-$14.54	52% 1513-1391 (2904)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$78.6	—	-$78.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$103.5	$167.56	+$64.06
MO mo-money	Downavg 71¢	$237.73	$334.83	+$97.1	49% 924-973 (1897)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$83.97	$95.82	+$11.85	53% 590-516 (1106)
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.7¢	$19.38	—	-$19.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$64.59	$95.82	+$31.23
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$114.81	$143	+$28.19	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$76.21	$143	+$66.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.8¢	$38.6	—	-$38.6
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$116.93	$82.86	-$34.07	58% 648-472 (1120)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.6¢	$42.59	—	-$42.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.7¢	$74.34	$82.86	+$8.52
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$115.7	$130.18	+$14.48	53% 4292-3735 (8027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.5¢	$93.09	$130.18	+$37.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.1¢	$22.61	—	-$22.61
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR<$100	Upavg 22.5¢	$51.43	—	-$51.43	44% 463-589 (1052)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$100.42	$108.72	+$8.3	47% 1032-1185 (2217)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$71.77	$108.72	+$36.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$28.65	—	-$28.65
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 40¢	$58.41	$84.5	+$26.09	50% 517-525 (1042)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.7¢	$24.61	—	-$24.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$33.8	$84.5	+$50.7
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 91.4¢	$86.63	$94.8	+$8.17	39% 945-1492 (2437)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,608

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$31.89

Record

57%

207-158 (365)

Both legs:

Up$3,830.3750¢$-4.1K

Down$3,802.8350¢+$4.2K

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

35%

46-85 (131)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

45%

491-595 (1086)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

2358-2296 (4654)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,188.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$137.6

Record

44%

759-983 (1742)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$568.36

Value

$600.04

PnL

+$31.68

Record

46%

687-811 (1498)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Invested

$388.08

Value

$392

PnL

+$3.92

Record

98%

2496-50 (2546)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$390.59

Value

$383.33

PnL

-$7.26

Record

52%

4244-3980 (8224)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$395.38

Value

$372.27

PnL

-$23.11

Record

42%

494-676 (1170)

bosona

Down

Invested

$282

Value

$306.92

PnL

+$24.92

Record

50%

4166-4088 (8254)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$214.54

Value

$253.23

PnL

+$38.69

Record

55%

3998-3332 (7330)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$207.22

Value

$208.91

PnL

+$1.69

Record

50%

569-558 (1127)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$183.1

Value

$211.23

PnL

+$28.13

Record

55%

614-497 (1111)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$182.1

Value

$167.56

PnL

-$14.54

Record

52%

1513-1391 (2904)

Both legs:

Up$78.639.3¢-$78.6

Down$103.561.8¢+$64.06

mo-money

Down

Invested

$237.73

Value

$334.83

PnL

+$97.1

Record

49%

924-973 (1897)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.97

Value

$95.82

PnL

+$11.85

Record

53%

590-516 (1106)

Both legs:

Up$19.3810.7¢-$19.38

Down$64.5967.4¢+$31.23

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.81

Value

$143

PnL

+$28.19

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

Both legs:

Down$76.2153.3¢+$66.79

Up$38.631.8¢-$38.6

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$116.93

Value

$82.86

PnL

-$34.07

Record

58%

648-472 (1120)

Both legs:

Up$42.5925.6¢-$42.59

Down$74.3489.7¢+$8.52

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.7

Value

$130.18

PnL

+$14.48

Record

53%

4292-3735 (8027)

Both legs:

Down$93.0971.5¢+$37.09

Up$22.6124.1¢-$22.61

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR<$100

Invested

$51.43

Value

—

PnL

-$51.43

Record

44%

463-589 (1052)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.42

Value

$108.72

PnL

+$8.3

Record

47%

1032-1185 (2217)

Both legs:

Down$71.7766¢+$36.95

Up$28.6528.5¢-$28.65

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$58.41

Value

$84.5

PnL

+$26.09

Record

50%

517-525 (1042)

Both legs:

Up$24.6121.7¢-$24.61

Down$33.840¢+$50.7

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$86.63

Value

$94.8

PnL

+$8.17

Record

39%

945-1492 (2437)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 42 top traders (24%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5546c3ee...8028c9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794534000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $950

+$0.2

machinelearned

Down — $1.3K

+$137.6

CrouchPredictions

Down — $600.04

+$31.68

QuantumPebble673

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

hoodquant

Down — $392

+$3.92

blue.birds

Down — $383.33

-$7.26

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