Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

21 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.6K

Combined PnL

-$492.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 50 top traders (60%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,267

Combined PnL+$899.3

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,434

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.1K	+$36.51	57% 207-158 (365)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.1K	$8.1K	+$4.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.2K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$101.15	35% 46-85 (131)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.8K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.4K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	+$27.87	45% 491-595 (1086)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.7K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.8K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 580-3 (583)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$940	+$26.9	51% 2358-2296 (4654)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$470	$940	+$469.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$455	—	-$442.4
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$1.0K	$884.7	-$138.57	52% 4244-3980 (8224)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.8¢	$582.46	$884.7	+$302.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$440.81	—	-$440.81
ST stepahead	Downavg 77.4¢	$891.6	$883.93	-$7.67	55% 3998-3332 (7330)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$791.16	$779.77	-$11.38	50% 569-558 (1127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$557.95	$779.77	+$221.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$233.21	—	-$233.21
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 52.9¢	$618.28	—	-$595.28	42% 494-676 (1170)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$512.96	$619.61	+$106.65	46% 687-811 (1498)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$254.56	$619.61	+$365.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$258.41	—	-$258.41
AL almach	Downavg 89.9¢	$892.03	$788.79	-$103.24	49% 924-967 (1891)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 39.9¢	$441.35	$664.99	+$223.64	51% 1529-1484 (3013)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 51.1¢	$495.77	—	-$474.02	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 53.2¢	$437.89	$553.72	+$115.83	44% 537-673 (1210)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$506.06	$445.43	-$60.64	50% 527-529 (1056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.9¢	$364.85	$445.43	+$80.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.1¢	$141.22	—	-$141.22
MO mo-money	Downavg 90.2¢	$485.79	$386.15	-$99.64	49% 924-973 (1897)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$223.41	$320.08	+$96.67	44% 759-983 (1742)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$117.24	$320.08	+$202.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$106.17	—	-$106.17
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75.1¢	$347.9	$318.71	-$29.19	53% 590-516 (1106)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$314.97	$299.96	-$15.02	54% 250-216 (466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$131.98	$299.96	+$167.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$182.99	—	-$182.99
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 63.8¢	$303.15	$308.45	+$5.3	55% 614-497 (1111)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 49.7¢	$204.71	$308.89	+$104.18	44% 1423-1823 (3246)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 28.9¢	$90.16	$168.53	+$78.37	50% 517-525 (1042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.9¢	$48.76	$168.53	+$119.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.4¢	$41.4	—	-$41.4
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75¢	$403.43	$252	-$20.12	52% 1513-1391 (2904)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,784

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$36.51

Record

57%

207-158 (365)

Both legs:

Down$4,050.2650¢+$4.2K

Up$4,184.850¢$-4.2K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$101.15

Record

35%

46-85 (131)

Both legs:

Down$2,406.8450¢+$2.5K

Up$2,248.7650¢$-2.4K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$27.87

Record

45%

491-595 (1086)

Both legs:

Down$1,856.7550¢+$1.9K

Up$1,859.2450¢$-1.8K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

580-3 (583)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$940

PnL

+$26.9

Record

51%

2358-2296 (4654)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,023.27

Value

$884.7

PnL

-$138.57

Record

52%

4244-3980 (8224)

Both legs:

Down$582.4665.8¢+$302.24

Up$440.8152.3¢-$440.81

stepahead

Down

Invested

$891.6

Value

$883.93

PnL

-$7.67

Record

55%

3998-3332 (7330)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$791.16

Value

$779.77

PnL

-$11.38

Record

50%

569-558 (1127)

Both legs:

Down$557.9571.6¢+$221.83

Up$233.2135.2¢-$233.21

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$618.28

Value

—

PnL

-$595.28

Record

42%

494-676 (1170)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$512.96

Value

$619.61

PnL

+$106.65

Record

46%

687-811 (1498)

Both legs:

Down$254.5641.1¢+$365.06

Up$258.4130.3¢-$258.41

almach

Down

Invested

$892.03

Value

$788.79

PnL

-$103.24

Record

49%

924-967 (1891)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$441.35

Value

$664.99

PnL

+$223.64

Record

51%

1529-1484 (3013)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$495.77

Value

—

PnL

-$474.02

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$25050¢-$250

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Invested

$437.89

Value

$553.72

PnL

+$115.83

Record

44%

537-673 (1210)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$506.06

Value

$445.43

PnL

-$60.64

Record

50%

527-529 (1056)

Both legs:

Down$364.8581.9¢+$80.58

Up$141.2227.1¢-$141.22

mo-money

Down

Invested

$485.79

Value

$386.15

PnL

-$99.64

Record

49%

924-973 (1897)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$223.41

Value

$320.08

PnL

+$96.67

Record

44%

759-983 (1742)

Both legs:

Down$117.2436.6¢+$202.84

Up$106.1739.7¢-$106.17

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$347.9

Value

$318.71

PnL

-$29.19

Record

53%

590-516 (1106)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$314.97

Value

$299.96

PnL

-$15.02

Record

54%

250-216 (466)

Both legs:

Down$131.9844¢+$167.98

Up$182.9961¢-$182.99

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$303.15

Value

$308.45

PnL

+$5.3

Record

55%

614-497 (1111)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$204.71

Value

$308.89

PnL

+$104.18

Record

44%

1423-1823 (3246)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.16

Value

$168.53

PnL

+$78.37

Record

50%

517-525 (1042)

Both legs:

Down$48.7628.9¢+$119.77

Up$41.48.4¢-$41.4

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$403.43

Value

$252

PnL

-$20.12

Record

52%

1513-1391 (2904)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 50 top traders (60%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4dfd870f...a04d54

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794533700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Down — $3.5K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Down — $883.93

-$7.67

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.38

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded