Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
61
Down 79%
$19.4K
$-12.1K
Smart Money Signal
48 of 61 top traders (79%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.8K | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | +$156.46 | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 49% 949-993 (1942) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$82.63 | 38% 771-1268 (2039) |
BO bosona | Downavg 90.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$110.47 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | -$1.41 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 93.4¢ | $741.22 | $793.69 | +$52.47 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $670.36 | $672.41 | +$2.06 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70.5¢ | $450.04 | $614.43 | +$165.59 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 86.5¢ | $554.99 | $599.98 | +$45 | 54% 247-211 (458) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.7¢ | $628.43 | $581.06 | +$33.09 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 69.2¢ | $540.05 | $564 | +$38.94 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
AL almach | Downavg 96.1¢ | $1.7K | $553.88 | -$21.13 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 88.1¢ | $474.11 | $538.2 | +$64.09 | 73% 1126-414 (1540) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.2¢ | $457.51 | $491.36 | +$33.85 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 46.3¢ | $179.96 | $389 | +$209.04 | 60% 701-467 (1168) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 93.3¢ | $305.63 | $306.29 | +$0.66 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 92.7¢ | $289.96 | $281.25 | -$8.71 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 76.2¢ | $214.76 | $263.98 | +$49.22 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
 ohioism | Downavg 89.5¢ | $214.88 | $240 | +$25.12 | 48% 1394-1530 (2924) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 83.2¢ | $168.95 | $191.72 | +$23.48 | 66% 2417-1229 (3646) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 93.2¢ | $198.89 | $202 | +$3.1 | 52% 1846-1725 (3571) |
Invested
$8,737
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$156.46
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
49%
949-993 (1942)
Invested
$1,129.36
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$82.63
Record
38%
771-1268 (2039)
Invested
$1,052.8
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$110.47
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
-$1.41
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
Invested
$741.22
Value
$793.69
PnL
+$52.47
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$670.36
Value
$672.41
PnL
+$2.06
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$450.04
Value
$614.43
PnL
+$165.59
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$554.99
Value
$599.98
PnL
+$45
Record
54%
247-211 (458)
Invested
$628.43
Value
$581.06
PnL
+$33.09
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$540.05
Value
$564
PnL
+$38.94
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$1,736.93
Value
$553.88
PnL
-$21.13
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
BoneOhioInvested
$474.11
Value
$538.2
PnL
+$64.09
Record
73%
1126-414 (1540)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$457.51
Value
$491.36
PnL
+$33.85
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$179.96
Value
$389
PnL
+$209.04
Record
60%
701-467 (1168)
machinelearnedInvested
$305.63
Value
$306.29
PnL
+$0.66
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Invested
$289.96
Value
$281.25
PnL
-$8.71
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
Invested
$214.76
Value
$263.98
PnL
+$49.22
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
ohioismInvested
$214.88
Value
$240
PnL
+$25.12
Record
48%
1394-1530 (2924)
Invested
$168.95
Value
$191.72
PnL
+$23.48
Record
66%
2417-1229 (3646)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$198.89
Value
$202
PnL
+$3.1
Record
52%
1846-1725 (3571)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.4K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.2K
bosona
Down — $1.2K
soswald1
Down — $940
mo-money
Down — $793.69
EZTRADENL2
Down — $672.41
CrouchPredictions
Down — $614.43