Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$21.7K
$-13.4K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 62 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.1K | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$47.02 | 99% 571-3 (574) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $2.7K | +$508.07 | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
BO bosona | Downavg 85.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$44.33 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$181.47 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 59.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$52.22 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 81.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$120.69 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$932.9 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.2¢ | $1.0K | $887.05 | -$154.57 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
AL almach | Downavg 83.3¢ | $1.3K | $913.33 | -$7.27 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 37.1¢ | $1.3K | $798.29 | +$637.59 | 51% 1497-1460 (2957) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $790.55 | $664.75 | -$125.81 | 54% 247-211 (458) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.1¢ | $512.57 | $664.75 | +$152.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.3¢ | $277.98 | — | -$277.98 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 48.6¢ | $585.91 | $699.1 | +$115.11 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 43.2¢ | $713.4 | — | -$711.15 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 55.7¢ | $393.95 | $669.15 | +$275.2 | 73% 1126-414 (1540) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 62.9¢ | $477.63 | $663.72 | +$186.09 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $553.37 | $875.45 | +$322.08 | 47% 1444-1636 (3080) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 35.8¢ | $384.8 | — | -$384.8 | 48% 1267-1365 (2632) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 72.8¢ | $347.21 | $445.42 | +$98.21 | 44% 1391-1787 (3178) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 79.7¢ | $524.15 | $392.23 | -$131.92 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 80.1¢ | $406.73 | $340.59 | -$66.14 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 85¢ | $375.78 | $321.77 | -$54.01 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
Invested
$8,539
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,452.98
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$47.02
Record
99%
571-3 (574)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$508.07
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$1,441.53
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$44.33
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$1,417.36
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$181.47
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$1,077.57
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$52.22
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$1,001.68
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$120.69
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$932.9
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
Invested
$1,041.62
Value
$887.05
PnL
-$154.57
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$1,315.55
Value
$913.33
PnL
-$7.27
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$1,271.21
Value
$798.29
PnL
+$637.59
Record
51%
1497-1460 (2957)
Invested
$790.55
Value
$664.75
PnL
-$125.81
Record
54%
247-211 (458)
Both legs:
Invested
$585.91
Value
$699.1
PnL
+$115.11
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$713.4
Value
—
PnL
-$711.15
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
BoneOhioInvested
$393.95
Value
$669.15
PnL
+$275.2
Record
73%
1126-414 (1540)
machinelearnedInvested
$477.63
Value
$663.72
PnL
+$186.09
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Invested
$553.37
Value
$875.45
PnL
+$322.08
Record
47%
1444-1636 (3080)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$384.8
Value
—
PnL
-$384.8
Record
48%
1267-1365 (2632)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$347.21
Value
$445.42
PnL
+$98.21
Record
44%
1391-1787 (3178)
Invested
$524.15
Value
$392.23
PnL
-$131.92
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
Invested
$406.73
Value
$340.59
PnL
-$66.14
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$375.78
Value
$321.77
PnL
-$54.01
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
Down — $2.7K
bosona
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
blue.birds
Down — $1.0K
mo-money
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $887.05