Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 79%
$12.1K
$-16.4K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 56 top traders (79%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.3K | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$10.79 | 49% 949-993 (1942) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$25.9 | 73% 1126-414 (1540) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.52 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 90.9¢ | $577.71 | $618.08 | +$40.37 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.3¢ | $591.81 | $677.84 | +$86.03 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 82.8¢ | $610.26 | $499.99 | +$38.43 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
AL almach | Downavg 91.7¢ | $259.26 | $282.73 | +$23.47 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 93.9¢ | $204.35 | $207.07 | +$2.72 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 83.2¢ | $239.32 | $189.99 | -$49.33 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 85.9¢ | $208.02 | $178.33 | +$24.22 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $211.14 | $176.73 | -$34.41 | 50% 508-513 (1021) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $127.82 | $169 | +$41.18 | 50% 508-517 (1025) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 68.2¢ | $90.41 | $125 | +$34.59 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 82.1¢ | $116.74 | $97.14 | -$19.59 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 87.4¢ | $96.1 | $110 | +$13.9 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 95.9¢ | $93.36 | $97.31 | +$3.95 | 33% 699-1410 (2109) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79.9¢ | $57.01 | $71.38 | +$14.37 | 66% 2417-1229 (3646) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $65.6 | $80 | +$14.4 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 93.1¢ | $64.22 | $69 | +$4.78 | 39% 920-1454 (2374) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 82.4¢ | $64.68 | $78.25 | +$13.57 | 59% 657-451 (1108) |
Invested
$8,854
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,927.08
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$10.79
Record
49%
949-993 (1942)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,539.07
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$25.9
Record
73%
1126-414 (1540)
Invested
$1,154.48
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.52
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
Invested
$577.71
Value
$618.08
PnL
+$40.37
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$591.81
Value
$677.84
PnL
+$86.03
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$610.26
Value
$499.99
PnL
+$38.43
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$259.26
Value
$282.73
PnL
+$23.47
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$204.35
Value
$207.07
PnL
+$2.72
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$239.32
Value
$189.99
PnL
-$49.33
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$208.02
Value
$178.33
PnL
+$24.22
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$211.14
Value
$176.73
PnL
-$34.41
Record
50%
508-513 (1021)
Invested
$127.82
Value
$169
PnL
+$41.18
Record
50%
508-517 (1025)
Invested
$90.41
Value
$125
PnL
+$34.59
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$116.74
Value
$97.14
PnL
-$19.59
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
machinelearnedInvested
$96.1
Value
$110
PnL
+$13.9
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$93.36
Value
$97.31
PnL
+$3.95
Record
33%
699-1410 (2109)
Invested
$57.01
Value
$71.38
PnL
+$14.37
Record
66%
2417-1229 (3646)
Invested
$65.6
Value
$80
PnL
+$14.4
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$64.22
Value
$69
PnL
+$4.78
Record
39%
920-1454 (2374)
Invested
$64.68
Value
$78.25
PnL
+$13.57
Record
59%
657-451 (1108)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.9K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $618.08
mo-money
Down — $677.84
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500