Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 34% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Down 34%
$9.4K
$-16.2K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 53 top traders (34%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.4K | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 571-3 (574) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 79.7¢ | $545.14 | $553.07 | +$7.93 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 89.5¢ | $457.16 | $479.6 | +$22.45 | 50% 508-517 (1025) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 92.2¢ | $408.36 | $424.99 | +$16.64 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.1¢ | $274.81 | $338.72 | +$63.9 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
AL almach | Upavg 80.3¢ | $270.14 | $332.48 | +$62.34 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 58.4¢ | $302.31 | $322.01 | +$19.7 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.7¢ | $360.17 | $281.48 | -$12.46 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 76.4¢ | $236.99 | $260.62 | +$23.63 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 76.4¢ | $181.21 | $234.22 | +$53 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $222.77 | $222.99 | +$0.22 | 49% 949-993 (1942) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 80¢ | $199.97 | $218.17 | +$42.37 | 59% 657-451 (1108) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 83.8¢ | $207.6 | $218.08 | +$32.91 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 97.6¢ | $196.15 | $194.12 | -$2.03 | 50% 508-513 (1021) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 57.6¢ | $104.68 | $181.72 | +$77.05 | 48% 818-882 (1700) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $167.25 | $176.93 | +$9.68 | 50% 516-519 (1035) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 66.2¢ | $141.24 | $148.16 | +$7.91 | 46% 1005-1165 (2170) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 81.4¢ | $166.91 | $141.43 | -$25.48 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 77.4¢ | $251.43 | $129.01 | -$8.02 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 73.6¢ | $133.1 | $124 | +$31.24 | 60% 647-438 (1085) |
Invested
$8,642
Value
—
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
571-3 (574)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$545.14
Value
$553.07
PnL
+$7.93
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$457.16
Value
$479.6
PnL
+$22.45
Record
50%
508-517 (1025)
Invested
$408.36
Value
$424.99
PnL
+$16.64
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$274.81
Value
$338.72
PnL
+$63.9
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$270.14
Value
$332.48
PnL
+$62.34
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$302.31
Value
$322.01
PnL
+$19.7
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$360.17
Value
$281.48
PnL
-$12.46
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$236.99
Value
$260.62
PnL
+$23.63
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
Invested
$181.21
Value
$234.22
PnL
+$53
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$222.77
Value
$222.99
PnL
+$0.22
Record
49%
949-993 (1942)
Invested
$199.97
Value
$218.17
PnL
+$42.37
Record
59%
657-451 (1108)
Invested
$207.6
Value
$218.08
PnL
+$32.91
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
Invested
$196.15
Value
$194.12
PnL
-$2.03
Record
50%
508-513 (1021)
Invested
$104.68
Value
$181.72
PnL
+$77.05
Record
48%
818-882 (1700)
Invested
$167.25
Value
$176.93
PnL
+$9.68
Record
50%
516-519 (1035)
Invested
$141.24
Value
$148.16
PnL
+$7.91
Record
46%
1005-1165 (2170)
Invested
$166.91
Value
$141.43
PnL
-$25.48
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$251.43
Value
$129.01
PnL
-$8.02
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$133.1
Value
$124
PnL
+$31.24
Record
60%
647-438 (1085)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $553.07
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRDown — $0
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
Up — $479.6
EZTRADENL2
Up — $424.99
bosona
Up — $338.72