Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Up 50%
5 arb excluded
$25.1K
$-6.3K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 56 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $7.9K | +$109.34 | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.6K | +$438.71 | 35% 38-70 (108) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 571-3 (574) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.0K | +$666.87 | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 35.2¢ | $768.69 | — | -$768.69 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 73.8¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 54% 247-211 (458) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $935 | +$2.1 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $467.5 | $935 | +$464.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $460 | — | -$462.6 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 56.3¢ | $883.11 | — | -$795.81 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 60.2¢ | $659.35 | — | -$659.35 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 48.8¢ | $693.27 | — | -$693.27 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $402.84 | — | -$402.84 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $633.68 | $518.71 | -$114.97 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 91.6¢ | $540.62 | $469.36 | -$71.26 | 44% 453-578 (1031) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 39.8¢ | $246.28 | $394.48 | +$148.2 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $272.45 | $322 | +$49.55 | 21% 273-1048 (1321) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 18¢ | $48.52 | $269.56 | +$221.04 | 51% 1497-1460 (2957) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 33.3¢ | $236.34 | — | -$236.34 | 48% 495-529 (1024) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $335.6 | $233.25 | -$102.36 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.7¢ | $113.54 | $233.25 | +$119.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.8¢ | $222.06 | — | -$222.06 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 41.1¢ | $241.4 | $247 | +$65.1 | 49% 3564-3672 (7236) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 75.1¢ | $750.28 | — | -$750.28 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 57.3¢ | $215.75 | $199.99 | -$15.77 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.5¢ | $86.99 | $199.99 | +$112.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $128.76 | — | -$128.76 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 75.1¢ | $711.89 | — | -$704.51 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Downavg 67.1¢ | $168.43 | — | -$168.43 | 46% 1005-1165 (2170) |
Invested
$8,853
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$109.34
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$438.71
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
571-3 (574)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$666.87
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$768.69
Value
—
PnL
-$768.69
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$1,405.43
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
54%
247-211 (458)
Invested
$950
Value
$935
PnL
+$2.1
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
Both legs:
Invested
$883.11
Value
—
PnL
-$795.81
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$659.35
Value
—
PnL
-$659.35
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$693.27
Value
—
PnL
-$693.27
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
Invested
$402.84
Value
—
PnL
-$402.84
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$633.68
Value
$518.71
PnL
-$114.97
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$540.62
Value
$469.36
PnL
-$71.26
Record
44%
453-578 (1031)
Invested
$246.28
Value
$394.48
PnL
+$148.2
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
NIULAI4Invested
$272.45
Value
$322
PnL
+$49.55
Record
21%
273-1048 (1321)
Invested
$48.52
Value
$269.56
PnL
+$221.04
Record
51%
1497-1460 (2957)
Invested
$236.34
Value
—
PnL
-$236.34
Record
48%
495-529 (1024)
Invested
$335.6
Value
$233.25
PnL
-$102.36
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Both legs:
Invested
$241.4
Value
$247
PnL
+$65.1
Record
49%
3564-3672 (7236)
Invested
$750.28
Value
—
PnL
-$750.28
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$215.75
Value
$199.99
PnL
-$15.77
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Both legs:
Invested
$711.89
Value
—
PnL
-$704.51
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$168.43
Value
—
PnL
-$168.43
Record
46%
1005-1165 (2170)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.6K
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
Up — $3.0K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
gansinimen
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0