Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 63%
3 arb excluded
$13.4K
$-16.3K
Smart Money Signal
34 of 54 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.9K | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 571-3 (574) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.9K | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$70.52 | 48% 1267-1365 (2632) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$20.24 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 81.5¢ | $995.31 | $1.1K | +$72.52 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $935 | -$7.35 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $467.5 | $935 | +$467.65 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 95.1¢ | $591.54 | $619.46 | +$27.92 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
AL almach | Downavg 98¢ | $496.48 | $506.75 | +$10.27 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.4¢ | $488.34 | $503.06 | +$14.72 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 85.5¢ | $320.82 | $367.37 | +$46.55 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $371.65 | $361.8 | -$9.85 | 44% 453-578 (1031) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 94.1¢ | $356.79 | $354.99 | -$1.79 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 64.6¢ | $161.53 | $250 | +$88.47 | 52% 678-618 (1296) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $198 | $229.69 | +$31.69 | 50% 508-513 (1021) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 35.7¢ | $335.55 | — | -$314.76 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 93.9¢ | $290.4 | $204.09 | -$86.31 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 62.7¢ | $149.46 | $130.57 | +$9.29 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 94.9¢ | $113.87 | $120 | +$6.13 | 52% 1846-1725 (3571) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $112.44 | $55.56 | -$56.88 | 50% 516-519 (1035) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $76.88 | — | -$76.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $35.56 | $55.56 | +$20 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $95.09 | $98 | +$3.01 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 87¢ | $193.93 | $97.73 | -$12.11 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
Invested
$8,919
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
571-3 (574)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$2,070.52
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$70.52
Record
48%
1267-1365 (2632)
Invested
$1,139.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$20.24
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
Invested
$995.31
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$72.52
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$950
Value
$935
PnL
-$7.35
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
Both legs:
Invested
$591.54
Value
$619.46
PnL
+$27.92
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$496.48
Value
$506.75
PnL
+$10.27
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$488.34
Value
$503.06
PnL
+$14.72
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$320.82
Value
$367.37
PnL
+$46.55
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$371.65
Value
$361.8
PnL
-$9.85
Record
44%
453-578 (1031)
Invested
$356.79
Value
$354.99
PnL
-$1.79
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$161.53
Value
$250
PnL
+$88.47
Record
52%
678-618 (1296)
Invested
$198
Value
$229.69
PnL
+$31.69
Record
50%
508-513 (1021)
Invested
$335.55
Value
—
PnL
-$314.76
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
machinelearnedInvested
$290.4
Value
$204.09
PnL
-$86.31
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$149.46
Value
$130.57
PnL
+$9.29
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$113.87
Value
$120
PnL
+$6.13
Record
52%
1846-1725 (3571)
Invested
$112.44
Value
$55.56
PnL
-$56.88
Record
50%
516-519 (1035)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.09
Value
$98
PnL
+$3.01
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Invested
$193.93
Value
$97.73
PnL
-$12.11
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $619.46
almach
Down — $506.75