Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$29.0K
$-9.3K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 58 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $13.0K | $13.0K | +$13.01 | 49% 949-993 (1942) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.9K | -$92.93 | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.8K | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$10.8 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 91.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$81.26 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
AL almach | Downavg 98¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$230 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 98¢ | $1.2K | $500 | -$238.57 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
BO bosona | Downavg 98¢ | $1.2K | $500 | -$168.88 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.5¢ | $440.01 | $455 | +$14.99 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.2¢ | $553.96 | $431.01 | -$49.49 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 78.8¢ | $377.88 | $322.08 | -$53.04 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 62.1¢ | $279.93 | $241.77 | -$38.16 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $243.15 | $238.45 | -$4.7 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 90.7¢ | $188.63 | $160.92 | -$25.34 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 91.8¢ | $155.01 | $159.97 | +$4.96 | 59% 657-451 (1108) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 87¢ | $126.21 | $143.33 | +$17.12 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 73.2¢ | $148.93 | $138.72 | -$9.51 | 46% 1005-1165 (2170) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $127.76 | $173.69 | +$45.93 | 50% 508-513 (1021) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 80.4¢ | $106.61 | $125.5 | +$18.89 | 60% 647-438 (1085) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 98¢ | $120.54 | $123 | +$2.46 | 52% 1846-1725 (3571) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60¢ | $125.83 | $110.1 | -$15.73 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $89.54 | $100.24 | +$10.7 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.3¢ | $56.4 | $100.24 | +$43.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27¢ | $33.14 | — | -$33.14 |
Invested
$13,000.01
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$13.01
Record
49%
949-993 (1942)
Invested
$8,626
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$92.93
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$1,452.2
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$10.8
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
machinelearnedInvested
$1,089.36
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$81.26
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Invested
$1,230
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$230
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$1,238.57
Value
$500
PnL
-$238.57
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$1,229.99
Value
$500
PnL
-$168.88
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$440.01
Value
$455
PnL
+$14.99
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$553.96
Value
$431.01
PnL
-$49.49
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$377.88
Value
$322.08
PnL
-$53.04
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
Invested
$279.93
Value
$241.77
PnL
-$38.16
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$243.15
Value
$238.45
PnL
-$4.7
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$188.63
Value
$160.92
PnL
-$25.34
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Invested
$155.01
Value
$159.97
PnL
+$4.96
Record
59%
657-451 (1108)
Invested
$126.21
Value
$143.33
PnL
+$17.12
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
Invested
$148.93
Value
$138.72
PnL
-$9.51
Record
46%
1005-1165 (2170)
Invested
$127.76
Value
$173.69
PnL
+$45.93
Record
50%
508-513 (1021)
Invested
$106.61
Value
$125.5
PnL
+$18.89
Record
60%
647-438 (1085)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$120.54
Value
$123
PnL
+$2.46
Record
52%
1846-1725 (3571)
Invested
$125.83
Value
$110.1
PnL
-$15.73
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$89.54
Value
$100.24
PnL
+$10.7
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $13.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
machinelearned
Down — $1.0K
almach
Down — $1.0K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $500