Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 73%
2 arb excluded
$21.6K
$-7.3K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 57 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.1K | +$74.35 | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 571-3 (574) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $921.14 | +$35.97 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 44.3¢ | $713.88 | $913.55 | +$199.67 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 54.1¢ | $709.84 | $715.92 | +$6.08 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 68.2¢ | $548.58 | $613.9 | +$65.32 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 57.7¢ | $499.66 | $575.08 | +$75.43 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
BO bosona | Upavg 93.8¢ | $549.58 | $573.01 | +$23.43 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 90.7¢ | $516.6 | $558.22 | +$41.62 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61.1¢ | $354.05 | $349.97 | -$4.08 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $343.53 | $347 | +$3.47 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $295.33 | $325.57 | +$30.24 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.6¢ | $149.55 | — | -$149.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.8¢ | $145.78 | $325.57 | +$179.78 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 55.2¢ | $213.02 | $304.63 | +$91.61 | 50% 516-519 (1035) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 59¢ | $470.55 | $258 | -$21.17 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 74¢ | $298.98 | $253.93 | +$54.93 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 52.4¢ | $125.29 | $239.09 | +$113.8 | 52% 678-618 (1296) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $238.34 | $230 | -$8.34 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 66.9¢ | $292.23 | $167.59 | +$41.07 | 59% 657-451 (1108) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 73.2¢ | $180.88 | $120.33 | -$27.94 | 63% 2841-1704 (4545) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 96¢ | $281.62 | $120 | -$12.63 | 60% 647-438 (1085) |
 OhioAICTR | Downavg 54¢ | $127.14 | — | -$124.64 | 49% 470-495 (965) |
Invested
$8,854
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$74.35
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
571-3 (574)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$950
Value
$921.14
PnL
+$35.97
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
Invested
$713.88
Value
$913.55
PnL
+$199.67
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$709.84
Value
$715.92
PnL
+$6.08
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
machinelearnedInvested
$548.58
Value
$613.9
PnL
+$65.32
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Invested
$499.66
Value
$575.08
PnL
+$75.43
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$549.58
Value
$573.01
PnL
+$23.43
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$516.6
Value
$558.22
PnL
+$41.62
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$354.05
Value
$349.97
PnL
-$4.08
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$343.53
Value
$347
PnL
+$3.47
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
Invested
$295.33
Value
$325.57
PnL
+$30.24
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Both legs:
Invested
$213.02
Value
$304.63
PnL
+$91.61
Record
50%
516-519 (1035)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$470.55
Value
$258
PnL
-$21.17
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$298.98
Value
$253.93
PnL
+$54.93
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
Invested
$125.29
Value
$239.09
PnL
+$113.8
Record
52%
678-618 (1296)
Invested
$238.34
Value
$230
PnL
-$8.34
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$292.23
Value
$167.59
PnL
+$41.07
Record
59%
657-451 (1108)
Invested
$180.88
Value
$120.33
PnL
-$27.94
Record
63%
2841-1704 (4545)
Invested
$281.62
Value
$120
PnL
-$12.63
Record
60%
647-438 (1085)
OhioAICTRInvested
$127.14
Value
—
PnL
-$124.64
Record
49%
470-495 (965)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $921.14
CrouchPredictions
Up — $913.55
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $715.92
machinelearned
Up — $613.9
blue.birds
Up — $575.08
bosona
Up — $573.01