Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 50%
9 arb excluded
$27.7K
$-4.5K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 52 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $7.8K | +$43.19 | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.2K | -$74.46 | 35% 38-70 (108) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$12.8 | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $3.8K | +$1.9K | |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$32.2 | 49% 949-993 (1942) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.7¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 31.8¢ | $714.71 | $1.1K | +$404.14 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 54.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $783.67 | $957.93 | +$217.54 | 21% 273-1048 (1321) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 46.8¢ | $530.88 | — | -$530.88 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 29¢ | $559.95 | — | -$559.95 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 29.4¢ | $424.16 | — | -$424.16 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 22.4¢ | $282.91 | $610.77 | +$416.52 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
BO bosona | Upavg 47.1¢ | $392.6 | $603.06 | +$210.45 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $466.48 | $439.58 | -$26.9 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.5¢ | $304.02 | — | -$304.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $162.46 | $439.58 | +$277.12 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $380.94 | $531.37 | +$150.43 | 51% 526-505 (1031) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $490.94 | — | -$490.94 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $321.22 | $329.45 | +$8.23 | 48% 495-529 (1024) |
AL almach | Upavg 70.8¢ | $1.0K | $331.02 | -$18.02 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 48.7¢ | $181.12 | — | -$150.12 | 53% 4280-3725 (8005) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $280.03 | $187.82 | -$92.21 | 50% 508-513 (1021) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.4¢ | $231.24 | — | -$231.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26¢ | $48.79 | $187.82 | +$139.03 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $304.07 | $332.52 | +$28.45 | 49% 3564-3672 (7236) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.9¢ | $156.68 | — | -$156.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $147.39 | $332.52 | +$185.13 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 79.8¢ | $345.82 | — | -$343.28 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $198.51 | — | -$198.51 | 44% 453-578 (1031) |
Invested
$8,951
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$43.19
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$74.46
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$12.8
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,187.39
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$32.2
Record
49%
949-993 (1942)
Invested
$1,533.61
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$714.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$404.14
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
Invested
$1,056.42
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
NIULAI4Invested
$783.67
Value
$957.93
PnL
+$217.54
Record
21%
273-1048 (1321)
Invested
$530.88
Value
—
PnL
-$530.88
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$559.95
Value
—
PnL
-$559.95
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
machinelearnedInvested
$424.16
Value
—
PnL
-$424.16
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
Invested
$282.91
Value
$610.77
PnL
+$416.52
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$392.6
Value
$603.06
PnL
+$210.45
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$466.48
Value
$439.58
PnL
-$26.9
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$380.94
Value
$531.37
PnL
+$150.43
Record
51%
526-505 (1031)
Invested
$490.94
Value
—
PnL
-$490.94
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$321.22
Value
$329.45
PnL
+$8.23
Record
48%
495-529 (1024)
Invested
$1,042.62
Value
$331.02
PnL
-$18.02
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
FairValueMachineInvested
$181.12
Value
—
PnL
-$150.12
Record
53%
4280-3725 (8005)
Invested
$280.03
Value
$187.82
PnL
-$92.21
Record
50%
508-513 (1021)
Both legs:
Invested
$304.07
Value
$332.52
PnL
+$28.45
Record
49%
3564-3672 (7236)
Both legs:
Invested
$345.82
Value
—
PnL
-$343.28
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Invested
$198.51
Value
—
PnL
-$198.51
Record
44%
453-578 (1031)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.8K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.2K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Up — $3.2K
blue.birds
Down — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
stepahead
Down — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $957.93
GoodFallen
Down — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $0