Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 71%
2 arb excluded
$22.6K
-$264.05
Smart Money Signal
36 of 52 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.2K | +$66.91 | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$4.48 | 35% 38-70 (108) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$103.45 | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 89.4¢ | $685.61 | $657.17 | -$5.18 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BO bosona | Upavg 88.4¢ | $457.83 | $517.63 | +$59.8 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 51.1¢ | $341.36 | $409.92 | +$68.56 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
AL almach | Upavg 77.2¢ | $439.84 | $426.29 | -$13.55 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 65.1¢ | $285.3 | $271.68 | +$16.42 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 34.7¢ | $233.13 | — | -$233.13 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 70.1¢ | $226.18 | $234.53 | +$8.36 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $171.3 | $200.55 | +$29.25 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 74¢ | $157.05 | $165.38 | +$8.33 | 59% 657-451 (1108) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 58.9¢ | $151.6 | $161.56 | +$9.96 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 74.2¢ | $130.26 | $146.93 | +$16.67 | 60% 647-438 (1085) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 54.7¢ | $104.43 | $137.44 | +$33.01 | 49% 470-495 (965) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 94.7¢ | $144.32 | $132 | -$12.32 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 33.1¢ | $225.7 | $93.04 | -$132.66 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.6¢ | $61.06 | $93.04 | +$31.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.1¢ | $164.64 | — | -$164.64 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 50.7¢ | $83.86 | $102.04 | +$18.18 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 80.3¢ | $102.03 | $96.98 | +$1.24 | 66% 2417-1229 (3646) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Downavg 65¢ | $109.4 | — | -$109.4 | 47% 1444-1636 (3080) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 85.7¢ | $110.79 | $90 | -$9.35 | 63% 2841-1704 (4545) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 88.6¢ | $119.57 | $84.11 | -$35.46 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $82.51 | $90 | +$7.49 | 50% 516-519 (1035) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $44.1 | $90 | +$45.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $38.41 | — | -$38.41 |
Invested
$8,794
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$66.91
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$4.48
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$103.45
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$685.61
Value
$657.17
PnL
-$5.18
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$457.83
Value
$517.63
PnL
+$59.8
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Invested
$341.36
Value
$409.92
PnL
+$68.56
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
Invested
$439.84
Value
$426.29
PnL
-$13.55
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$285.3
Value
$271.68
PnL
+$16.42
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$233.13
Value
—
PnL
-$233.13
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$226.18
Value
$234.53
PnL
+$8.36
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$171.3
Value
$200.55
PnL
+$29.25
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$157.05
Value
$165.38
PnL
+$8.33
Record
59%
657-451 (1108)
Invested
$151.6
Value
$161.56
PnL
+$9.96
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Invested
$130.26
Value
$146.93
PnL
+$16.67
Record
60%
647-438 (1085)
OhioAIInvested
$104.43
Value
$137.44
PnL
+$33.01
Record
49%
470-495 (965)
Invested
$144.32
Value
$132
PnL
-$12.32
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
Invested
$225.7
Value
$93.04
PnL
-$132.66
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.86
Value
$102.04
PnL
+$18.18
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$102.03
Value
$96.98
PnL
+$1.24
Record
66%
2417-1229 (3646)
Invested
$109.4
Value
—
PnL
-$109.4
Record
47%
1444-1636 (3080)
Invested
$110.79
Value
$90
PnL
-$9.35
Record
63%
2841-1704 (4545)
Invested
$119.57
Value
$84.11
PnL
-$35.46
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
Invested
$82.51
Value
$90
PnL
+$7.49
Record
50%
516-519 (1035)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
Up — $3.8K
mo-money
Up — $657.17
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
bosona
Up — $517.63
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $409.92
almach
Up — $426.29
blue.birds
Up — $271.68