Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Up 65%
1 arb excluded
$17.3K
$-11.4K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 54 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.3K | 57% 193-148 (341) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | +$6.75 | 49% 949-993 (1942) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$8.86 | 35% 38-70 (108) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.6¢ | $597.6 | $600 | +$2.4 | 47% 995-1129 (2124) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 87.4¢ | $511.43 | $584.82 | +$73.4 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AL almach | Upavg 87.2¢ | $437.25 | $501.45 | +$64.19 | 49% 897-952 (1849) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $319.1 | $714.46 | +$395.36 | 48% 1267-1365 (2632) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 78¢ | $306.43 | $298.36 | -$8.07 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
BO bosona | Upavg 87.7¢ | $649.38 | $308.65 | +$80.2 | 50% 4140-4074 (8214) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 86.5¢ | $268.2 | $263.01 | -$5.19 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.8¢ | $232.73 | $252.74 | +$20.01 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 88.3¢ | $225.12 | $231.99 | +$6.87 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $207.25 | $210 | +$2.75 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 34.7¢ | $198.75 | $135.51 | -$63.24 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.2¢ | $81.55 | $135.51 | +$53.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.7¢ | $117.2 | — | -$117.2 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $130.57 | $136.85 | +$6.28 | 50% 516-519 (1035) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 70¢ | $105.98 | $142.18 | +$36.21 | 59% 657-451 (1108) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 66.3¢ | $122.65 | $110 | -$12.65 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 36.3¢ | $145.72 | — | -$145.72 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 75.5¢ | $99.63 | $132.02 | +$32.4 | 48% 495-529 (1024) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 82.6¢ | $95.02 | $115.09 | +$20.06 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 93¢ | $112.19 | $79.99 | -$32.2 | 53% 4280-3725 (8005) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $50.29 | $63.99 | +$13.7 | 55% 600-488 (1088) |
Invested
$8,639
Value
—
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
Invested
$6,742.72
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$6.75
Record
49%
949-993 (1942)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$8.86
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$597.6
Value
$600
PnL
+$2.4
Record
47%
995-1129 (2124)
Invested
$511.43
Value
$584.82
PnL
+$73.4
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$437.25
Value
$501.45
PnL
+$64.19
Record
49%
897-952 (1849)
Invested
$319.1
Value
$714.46
PnL
+$395.36
Record
48%
1267-1365 (2632)
Invested
$306.43
Value
$298.36
PnL
-$8.07
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
Invested
$649.38
Value
$308.65
PnL
+$80.2
Record
50%
4140-4074 (8214)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$268.2
Value
$263.01
PnL
-$5.19
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$232.73
Value
$252.74
PnL
+$20.01
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$225.12
Value
$231.99
PnL
+$6.87
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$207.25
Value
$210
PnL
+$2.75
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
Invested
$198.75
Value
$135.51
PnL
-$63.24
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Both legs:
Invested
$130.57
Value
$136.85
PnL
+$6.28
Record
50%
516-519 (1035)
Invested
$105.98
Value
$142.18
PnL
+$36.21
Record
59%
657-451 (1108)
Invested
$122.65
Value
$110
PnL
-$12.65
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Invested
$145.72
Value
—
PnL
-$145.72
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$99.63
Value
$132.02
PnL
+$32.4
Record
48%
495-529 (1024)
Invested
$95.02
Value
$115.09
PnL
+$20.06
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
FairValueMachineInvested
$112.19
Value
$79.99
PnL
-$32.2
Record
53%
4280-3725 (8005)
Invested
$50.29
Value
$63.99
PnL
+$13.7
Record
55%
600-488 (1088)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $6.7K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $600
mo-money
Up — $584.82
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRDown — $0
almach
Up — $501.45
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $714.46