Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 65%
3 arb excluded
$23.5K
$-7.7K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 55 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.1K | +$88.51 | 57% 193-148 (341) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 35% 38-70 (108) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 571-3 (574) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.3K | +$54.36 | 45% 481-582 (1063) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$13.57 | 98% 2447-49 (2496) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$926.36 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 92.8¢ | $1.3K | $787.71 | -$481.22 | 48% 896-962 (1858) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 59.1¢ | $777.98 | $743.82 | -$34.16 | 55% 3986-3312 (7298) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 48.3¢ | $603.39 | $700.9 | +$97.5 | 42% 483-664 (1147) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 57.2¢ | $600.96 | $634.7 | +$33.74 | 52% 4209-3942 (8151) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 40.1¢ | $634.74 | — | -$634.74 | 45% 667-799 (1466) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 33.7¢ | $348.36 | $979.49 | +$631.13 | 48% 1267-1365 (2632) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | -$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | -$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 45.4¢ | $297.78 | $349.33 | +$51.55 | 44% 524-663 (1187) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 47.4¢ | $354.68 | — | -$345.77 | 52% 1478-1365 (2843) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 87.2¢ | $241.68 | $259.65 | +$17.97 | 51% 559-545 (1104) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 57.9¢ | $267.19 | $252.56 | -$14.63 | 54% 581-502 (1083) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $261.1 | $255.35 | -$5.75 | 51% 526-505 (1031) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 66.9¢ | $189.23 | $200.52 | +$11.29 | 44% 749-968 (1717) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 58.9¢ | $227.41 | $215 | -$2.13 | 53% 4280-3725 (8005) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 58.8¢ | $192.65 | $208.78 | +$16.13 | 46% 1005-1165 (2170) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 65.6¢ | $222.64 | $198.11 | -$24.53 | 58% 634-463 (1097) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 34.4¢ | $168.5 | — | -$168.5 | 48% 495-529 (1024) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $147.57 | $143.23 | -$4.34 | 46% 1383-1602 (2985) |
Invested
$8,560
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$88.51
Record
57%
193-148 (341)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
35%
38-70 (108)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
571-3 (574)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$54.36
Record
45%
481-582 (1063)
Invested
$1,343.43
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.57
Record
98%
2447-49 (2496)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$926.36
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
Invested
$1,268.93
Value
$787.71
PnL
-$481.22
Record
48%
896-962 (1858)
Invested
$777.98
Value
$743.82
PnL
-$34.16
Record
55%
3986-3312 (7298)
Invested
$603.39
Value
$700.9
PnL
+$97.5
Record
42%
483-664 (1147)
Invested
$600.96
Value
$634.7
PnL
+$33.74
Record
52%
4209-3942 (8151)
Invested
$634.74
Value
—
PnL
-$634.74
Record
45%
667-799 (1466)
Invested
$348.36
Value
$979.49
PnL
+$631.13
Record
48%
1267-1365 (2632)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
-$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Both legs:
Invested
$297.78
Value
$349.33
PnL
+$51.55
Record
44%
524-663 (1187)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$354.68
Value
—
PnL
-$345.77
Record
52%
1478-1365 (2843)
Invested
$241.68
Value
$259.65
PnL
+$17.97
Record
51%
559-545 (1104)
Invested
$267.19
Value
$252.56
PnL
-$14.63
Record
54%
581-502 (1083)
Invested
$261.1
Value
$255.35
PnL
-$5.75
Record
51%
526-505 (1031)
machinelearnedInvested
$189.23
Value
$200.52
PnL
+$11.29
Record
44%
749-968 (1717)
FairValueMachineInvested
$227.41
Value
$215
PnL
-$2.13
Record
53%
4280-3725 (8005)
Invested
$192.65
Value
$208.78
PnL
+$16.13
Record
46%
1005-1165 (2170)
Invested
$222.64
Value
$198.11
PnL
-$24.53
Record
58%
634-463 (1097)
Invested
$168.5
Value
—
PnL
-$168.5
Record
48%
495-529 (1024)
Invested
$147.57
Value
$143.23
PnL
-$4.34
Record
46%
1383-1602 (2985)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
Up — $3.3K
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $787.71
stepahead
Up — $743.82
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $700.9
blue.birds
Up — $634.7