Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

38 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold Down (76%) · Down at 100¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

$28.98

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 100¢

+50% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 50 top traders (76%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares13,094

Combined PnL-$141.4

Down38 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,635

Combined PnL+$170.38

Up — 24%Down — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.7K	-$40.71	55% 182-146 (328)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$3.02	34% 33-63 (96)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$80.07	45% 474-576 (1050)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$947.6	+$2.98	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 63.3¢	$684.85	$797.07	+$112.22	46% 661-788 (1449)
MO mo-money	Downavg 87.6¢	$757.65	$791.68	+$34.02	48% 884-955 (1839)
BO bosona	Downavg 90¢	$510.76	$519.55	+$8.79	50% 4125-4066 (8191)
AL almach	Downavg 89.7¢	$506.63	$505.75	-$0.88	48% 885-942 (1827)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 90.8¢	$454.28	$447.1	-$7.18	50% 548-543 (1091)
ST stepahead	Downavg 61¢	$432.8	$436.43	+$3.64	55% 3974-3307 (7281)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$385.11	$387.06	+$1.94	98% 2427-48 (2475)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 79.4¢	$489.24	$360.02	-$36.51	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 81.3¢	$339.38	$296.47	+$14.16	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 67.9¢	$259.04	$272.35	+$13.31	42% 478-656 (1134)
machinelearned	Downavg 92.4¢	$244.7	$223.93	-$20.77	43% 739-963 (1702)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 82.2¢	$182.06	$159.38	-$22.68	59% 649-446 (1095)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 75.7¢	$98.4	$129.94	+$31.53	53% 4274-3719 (7993)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 75.4¢	$126.36	$126.58	+$0.22	44% 516-658 (1174)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 71.3¢	$134	$123	-$11	60% 641-431 (1072)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 86.8¢	$101.5	$111.74	+$10.24	52% 1825-1704 (3529)
SP spartacray	Downavg 81.9¢	$101.84	$105.86	+$4.02	58% 626-458 (1084)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$54.07	$94.95	+$40.88	36% 516-899 (1415)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 95¢	$80.28	$79.01	-$1.27	51% 528-510 (1038)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,946

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$40.71

Record

55%

182-146 (328)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$3.02

Record

34%

33-63 (96)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$80.07

Record

45%

474-576 (1050)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$947.6

PnL

+$2.98

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$684.85

Value

$797.07

PnL

+$112.22

Record

46%

661-788 (1449)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$757.65

Value

$791.68

PnL

+$34.02

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

bosona

Down

Invested

$510.76

Value

$519.55

PnL

+$8.79

Record

50%

4125-4066 (8191)

almach

Down

Invested

$506.63

Value

$505.75

PnL

-$0.88

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$454.28

Value

$447.1

PnL

-$7.18

Record

50%

548-543 (1091)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$432.8

Value

$436.43

PnL

+$3.64

Record

55%

3974-3307 (7281)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$385.11

Value

$387.06

PnL

+$1.94

Record

98%

2427-48 (2475)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$489.24

Value

$360.02

PnL

-$36.51

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$339.38

Value

$296.47

PnL

+$14.16

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$259.04

Value

$272.35

PnL

+$13.31

Record

42%

478-656 (1134)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$244.7

Value

$223.93

PnL

-$20.77

Record

43%

739-963 (1702)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$182.06

Value

$159.38

PnL

-$22.68

Record

59%

649-446 (1095)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$98.4

Value

$129.94

PnL

+$31.53

Record

53%

4274-3719 (7993)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$126.36

Value

$126.58

PnL

+$0.22

Record

44%

516-658 (1174)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$134

Value

$123

PnL

-$11

Record

60%

641-431 (1072)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$101.5

Value

$111.74

PnL

+$10.24

Record

52%

1825-1704 (3529)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$101.84

Value

$105.86

PnL

+$4.02

Record

58%

626-458 (1084)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$54.07

Value

$94.95

PnL

+$40.88

Record

36%

516-899 (1415)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$80.28

Value

$79.01

PnL

-$1.27

Record

51%

528-510 (1038)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 50 top traders (76%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.