Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Up 67%
4 arb excluded
$30.8K
-$254.18
Smart Money Signal
38 of 56 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $6.7K | -$120.37 | 55% 182-146 (328) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.5K | +$344.32 | 34% 33-63 (96) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 566-3 (569) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $2.9K | +$220.58 | 45% 474-576 (1050) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 58.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$274.41 | 46% 661-788 (1449) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 56.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$75.63 | 52% 4183-3927 (8110) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$5.32 | 55% 3974-3307 (7281) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $558.24 | $1.2K | +$597.19 | 20% 264-1043 (1307) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 55.4¢ | $942.85 | $1.1K | +$155.34 | 42% 478-656 (1134) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 81.4¢ | $762.8 | $662.37 | -$100.44 | 51% 528-510 (1038) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.5¢ | $421.28 | $504.94 | +$83.66 | 43% 739-963 (1702) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.2¢ | $481.05 | $490 | +$8.95 | 98% 2427-48 (2475) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 60¢ | $491.47 | $451.82 | -$39.65 | 44% 516-658 (1174) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 70.2¢ | $402.83 | $464.56 | +$61.73 | 55% 593-482 (1075) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 37.4¢ | $145.49 | $389.5 | +$244.01 | 48% 884-955 (1839) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 94.3¢ | $434.38 | $385.65 | -$47.94 | 66% 2393-1213 (3606) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 54.9¢ | $329.82 | $359.97 | +$39.3 | 53% 4274-3719 (7993) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 74.2¢ | $333.92 | $370.97 | +$37.05 | 50% 548-543 (1091) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 66.9¢ | $575.2 | $345.81 | -$69.71 | 52% 1462-1348 (2810) |
AL almach | Upavg 58.6¢ | $377.01 | $338.24 | -$8.91 | 48% 885-942 (1827) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 48¢ | $303.04 | — | -$303.04 | 36% 516-899 (1415) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $185.92 | $315.1 | +$129.18 | 50% 505-511 (1016) |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Upavg 47.7¢ | $169.43 | $206.01 | +$36.59 | 47% 997-1147 (2144) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.7¢ | $98.18 | $206.01 | +$107.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.9¢ | $71.25 | — | -$71.25 |
Invested
$8,963
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$120.37
Record
55%
182-146 (328)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$344.32
Record
34%
33-63 (96)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
566-3 (569)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$220.58
Record
45%
474-576 (1050)
Invested
$1,374.89
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$274.41
Record
46%
661-788 (1449)
Invested
$1,568.91
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$75.63
Record
52%
4183-3927 (8110)
Invested
$1,288.37
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$5.32
Record
55%
3974-3307 (7281)
NIULAI4Invested
$558.24
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$597.19
Record
20%
264-1043 (1307)
Invested
$942.85
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$155.34
Record
42%
478-656 (1134)
Invested
$762.8
Value
$662.37
PnL
-$100.44
Record
51%
528-510 (1038)
machinelearnedInvested
$421.28
Value
$504.94
PnL
+$83.66
Record
43%
739-963 (1702)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$481.05
Value
$490
PnL
+$8.95
Record
98%
2427-48 (2475)
Invested
$491.47
Value
$451.82
PnL
-$39.65
Record
44%
516-658 (1174)
Invested
$402.83
Value
$464.56
PnL
+$61.73
Record
55%
593-482 (1075)
Invested
$145.49
Value
$389.5
PnL
+$244.01
Record
48%
884-955 (1839)
Invested
$434.38
Value
$385.65
PnL
-$47.94
Record
66%
2393-1213 (3606)
FairValueMachineInvested
$329.82
Value
$359.97
PnL
+$39.3
Record
53%
4274-3719 (7993)
Invested
$333.92
Value
$370.97
PnL
+$37.05
Record
50%
548-543 (1091)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$575.2
Value
$345.81
PnL
-$69.71
Record
52%
1462-1348 (2810)
Invested
$377.01
Value
$338.24
PnL
-$8.91
Record
48%
885-942 (1827)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$303.04
Value
—
PnL
-$303.04
Record
36%
516-899 (1415)
Invested
$185.92
Value
$315.1
PnL
+$129.18
Record
50%
505-511 (1016)
Invested
$169.43
Value
$206.01
PnL
+$36.59
Record
47%
997-1147 (2144)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $6.7K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.5K
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
Up — $2.9K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.6K
blue.birds
Up — $1.5K
stepahead
Up — $1.3K
NIULAI4
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658
Up — $662.37