Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

$221.5

Smart Money Signal

42 of 53 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up42 traders

Total Value$28.8K

Total Shares28,788

Combined PnL+$779.28

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,362

Combined PnL-$557.79

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.9K	+$78.47	55% 182-146 (328)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$40.01	34% 33-63 (96)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$108.47	45% 474-576 (1050)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	49% 939-988 (1927)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.9	98% 2427-48 (2475)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$6.95	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 87.1¢	$840.19	$909	+$68.81	46% 661-788 (1449)
BO bosona	Upavg 83.4¢	$596.56	$715.54	+$118.98	50% 4125-4066 (8191)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
ST stepahead	Upavg 63.3¢	$501.41	$435.65	-$65.75	55% 3974-3307 (7281)
AL almach	Upavg 88.7¢	$419.46	$472.74	+$53.28	48% 885-942 (1827)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85.2¢	$517.62	$391.66	-$24.81	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
MO mo-money	Upavg 84.8¢	$327.7	$386.37	+$58.66	48% 884-955 (1839)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.1¢	$377.65	$339.52	+$3.46	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 95.1¢	$318.83	$335.31	+$16.47	52% 1825-1704 (3529)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 86¢	$277.1	$312.49	+$35.39	50% 548-543 (1091)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 79.7¢	$247.36	$261.98	+$14.63	42% 478-656 (1134)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 88.6¢	$144.98	$163.61	+$18.63	59% 649-446 (1095)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 82.1¢	$141.52	$162.73	+$21.2	44% 516-658 (1174)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 88¢	$138.29	$137.1	+$18.85	60% 641-431 (1072)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 82.9¢	$106.39	$127	+$20.61	55% 593-482 (1075)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$107.89	$102.56	-$5.33	49% 507-518 (1025)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$70.77	$102.56	+$31.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$37.13	—	-$37.13
ohioism<$100	Upavg 75¢	$56.25	$75	+$18.75	48% 1377-1513 (2890)
65 65765757<$100	Upavg 71¢	$50	$70.42	+$20.42	6% 2-31 (33)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,561

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$78.47

Record

55%

182-146 (328)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$40.01

Record

34%

33-63 (96)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$108.47

Record

45%

474-576 (1050)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

49%

939-988 (1927)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,079.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.9

Record

98%

2427-48 (2475)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$6.95

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$840.19

Value

$909

PnL

+$68.81

Record

46%

661-788 (1449)

bosona

Invested

$596.56

Value

$715.54

PnL

+$118.98

Record

50%

4125-4066 (8191)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

stepahead

Invested

$501.41

Value

$435.65

PnL

-$65.75

Record

55%

3974-3307 (7281)

almach

Invested

$419.46

Value

$472.74

PnL

+$53.28

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$517.62

Value

$391.66

PnL

-$24.81

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

mo-money

Invested

$327.7

Value

$386.37

PnL

+$58.66

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

blue.birds

Invested

$377.65

Value

$339.52

PnL

+$3.46

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$318.83

Value

$335.31

PnL

+$16.47

Record

52%

1825-1704 (3529)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$277.1

Value

$312.49

PnL

+$35.39

Record

50%

548-543 (1091)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$247.36

Value

$261.98

PnL

+$14.63

Record

42%

478-656 (1134)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$144.98

Value

$163.61

PnL

+$18.63

Record

59%

649-446 (1095)

GoodFallen

Invested

$141.52

Value

$162.73

PnL

+$21.2

Record

44%

516-658 (1174)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$138.29

Value

$137.1

PnL

+$18.85

Record

60%

641-431 (1072)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$106.39

Value

$127

PnL

+$20.61

Record

55%

593-482 (1075)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$107.89

Value

$102.56

PnL

-$5.33

Record

49%

507-518 (1025)

Both legs:

Up$70.7769¢+$31.79

Down$37.1347¢-$37.13

ohioism<$100

Invested

$56.25

Value

$75

PnL

+$18.75

Record

48%

1377-1513 (2890)

65765757<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$70.42

PnL

+$20.42

Record

2-31 (33)

Smart Money Signal

42 of 53 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x36d4ba1d...630101

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794525900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.9K

+$78.47

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$40.01

machine-earning

Up — $3.9K

+$108.47

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$3.01

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$10.9

soswald1

Up — $950

+$6.95

CrouchPredictions

Up — $909

+$68.81

bosona

Up — $715.54

+$118.98

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

+$0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

+$0

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