Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 75%
$16.4K
$-8.4K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 56 top traders (73%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.1K | +$74.83 | 55% 182-146 (328) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 34% 33-63 (96) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 474-576 (1050) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.48 | 49% 939-988 (1927) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $781.03 | $790 | +$8.97 | 98% 2427-48 (2475) |
AL almach | Downavg 64.6¢ | $421.54 | $633.84 | +$212.3 | 48% 885-942 (1827) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.6¢ | $540.61 | $558.52 | +$17.91 | 46% 661-788 (1449) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.1¢ | $399.94 | $451.62 | +$51.68 | 55% 3974-3307 (7281) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 70.9¢ | $330.67 | $346.11 | +$15.44 | 52% 4183-3927 (8110) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 60.7¢ | $306.43 | $504.9 | +$198.47 | 43% 739-963 (1702) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.7¢ | $310.57 | $338.1 | +$27.53 | 50% 4125-4066 (8191) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 89¢ | $292.88 | $308.33 | +$15.46 | 50% 548-543 (1091) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 73.4¢ | $235.04 | $297.89 | +$62.85 | 59% 649-446 (1095) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 55.2¢ | $138.05 | $250.29 | +$112.24 | 52% 672-610 (1282) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.1¢ | $221.57 | $226.76 | +$5.2 | 52% 1462-1348 (2810) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $233.13 | $206.26 | -$26.87 | 50% 502-509 (1011) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 76.3¢ | $148.29 | $194.33 | +$46.04 | 60% 641-431 (1072) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 77.7¢ | $144.1 | $183.35 | +$39.25 | 58% 626-458 (1084) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $119.84 | $172.69 | +$52.85 | 51% 528-510 (1038) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 67.1¢ | $79.88 | $117.31 | +$37.43 | 48% 884-955 (1839) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 95¢ | $107.39 | $107.52 | +$0.13 | 49% 507-518 (1025) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $76.1 | $96 | +$26.77 | 49% 464-488 (952) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $86.72 | $89.4 | +$2.68 | 33% 691-1396 (2087) |
Invested
$8,774
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$74.83
Record
55%
182-146 (328)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
34%
33-63 (96)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
474-576 (1050)
Invested
$1,474.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.48
Record
49%
939-988 (1927)
Invested
$781.03
Value
$790
PnL
+$8.97
Record
98%
2427-48 (2475)
Invested
$421.54
Value
$633.84
PnL
+$212.3
Record
48%
885-942 (1827)
Invested
$540.61
Value
$558.52
PnL
+$17.91
Record
46%
661-788 (1449)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$399.94
Value
$451.62
PnL
+$51.68
Record
55%
3974-3307 (7281)
Invested
$330.67
Value
$346.11
PnL
+$15.44
Record
52%
4183-3927 (8110)
machinelearnedInvested
$306.43
Value
$504.9
PnL
+$198.47
Record
43%
739-963 (1702)
Invested
$310.57
Value
$338.1
PnL
+$27.53
Record
50%
4125-4066 (8191)
Invested
$292.88
Value
$308.33
PnL
+$15.46
Record
50%
548-543 (1091)
Invested
$235.04
Value
$297.89
PnL
+$62.85
Record
59%
649-446 (1095)
Invested
$138.05
Value
$250.29
PnL
+$112.24
Record
52%
672-610 (1282)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$221.57
Value
$226.76
PnL
+$5.2
Record
52%
1462-1348 (2810)
Invested
$233.13
Value
$206.26
PnL
-$26.87
Record
50%
502-509 (1011)
Invested
$148.29
Value
$194.33
PnL
+$46.04
Record
60%
641-431 (1072)
Invested
$144.1
Value
$183.35
PnL
+$39.25
Record
58%
626-458 (1084)
Invested
$119.84
Value
$172.69
PnL
+$52.85
Record
51%
528-510 (1038)
Invested
$79.88
Value
$117.31
PnL
+$37.43
Record
48%
884-955 (1839)
Invested
$107.39
Value
$107.52
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
507-518 (1025)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$76.1
Value
$96
PnL
+$26.77
Record
49%
464-488 (952)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$86.72
Value
$89.4
PnL
+$2.68
Record
33%
691-1396 (2087)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $1.5K
hoodquant
Down — $790
almach
Down — $633.84
CrouchPredictions
Down — $558.52
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $451.62