Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Down 67%
$12.7K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 49 top traders (67%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $8.0K | +$66.72 | 55% 182-146 (328) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 34% 33-63 (96) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 474-576 (1050) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$937.5 | 51% 2285-2228 (4513) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83.6¢ | $625.33 | $647.36 | +$22.04 | 43% 739-963 (1702) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.7¢ | $301.95 | $282.15 | -$19.8 | 55% 3974-3307 (7281) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 85.3¢ | $256.42 | $290.04 | +$33.62 | 52% 4183-3927 (8110) |
AL almach | Downavg 86¢ | $262.79 | $300 | +$37.21 | 48% 885-942 (1827) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $227.64 | $242.74 | +$15.1 | 50% 548-543 (1091) |
BO bosona | Downavg 66¢ | $158.46 | $233.03 | +$74.57 | 50% 4125-4066 (8191) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 83.6¢ | $241.78 | $225.61 | -$16.16 | 42% 478-656 (1134) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 91.7¢ | $188.05 | $205 | +$16.95 | 60% 641-431 (1072) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 71.1¢ | $201.04 | $198.98 | -$2.06 | 52% 1462-1348 (2810) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 90.6¢ | $170.39 | $188.01 | +$17.62 | 59% 649-446 (1095) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 83.3¢ | $114.54 | $137.52 | +$22.98 | 55% 593-482 (1075) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 90.1¢ | $93.77 | $103.33 | +$9.56 | 58% 626-458 (1084) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86¢ | $92.11 | $107.1 | +$14.99 | 48% 884-955 (1839) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $78.81 | $70.35 | -$8.46 | 54% 573-498 (1071) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $89.76 | $60.01 | -$29.75 | 44% 516-658 (1174) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $54.5 | $64.76 | +$10.26 | 66% 2393-1213 (3606) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $63.95 | $60.64 | -$3.31 | 36% 516-899 (1415) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $54.92 | — | -$54.92 | 60% 694-461 (1155) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $43.93 | $56.91 | +$12.98 | 48% 665-716 (1381) |
Invested
$8,562
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$66.72
Record
55%
182-146 (328)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
34%
33-63 (96)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
474-576 (1050)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$937.5
Record
51%
2285-2228 (4513)
machinelearnedInvested
$625.33
Value
$647.36
PnL
+$22.04
Record
43%
739-963 (1702)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$301.95
Value
$282.15
PnL
-$19.8
Record
55%
3974-3307 (7281)
Invested
$256.42
Value
$290.04
PnL
+$33.62
Record
52%
4183-3927 (8110)
Invested
$262.79
Value
$300
PnL
+$37.21
Record
48%
885-942 (1827)
Invested
$227.64
Value
$242.74
PnL
+$15.1
Record
50%
548-543 (1091)
Invested
$158.46
Value
$233.03
PnL
+$74.57
Record
50%
4125-4066 (8191)
Invested
$241.78
Value
$225.61
PnL
-$16.16
Record
42%
478-656 (1134)
Invested
$188.05
Value
$205
PnL
+$16.95
Record
60%
641-431 (1072)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$201.04
Value
$198.98
PnL
-$2.06
Record
52%
1462-1348 (2810)
Invested
$170.39
Value
$188.01
PnL
+$17.62
Record
59%
649-446 (1095)
Invested
$114.54
Value
$137.52
PnL
+$22.98
Record
55%
593-482 (1075)
Invested
$93.77
Value
$103.33
PnL
+$9.56
Record
58%
626-458 (1084)
Invested
$92.11
Value
$107.1
PnL
+$14.99
Record
48%
884-955 (1839)
Invested
$78.81
Value
$70.35
PnL
-$8.46
Record
54%
573-498 (1071)
Invested
$89.76
Value
$60.01
PnL
-$29.75
Record
44%
516-658 (1174)
Invested
$54.5
Value
$64.76
PnL
+$10.26
Record
66%
2393-1213 (3606)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$63.95
Value
$60.64
PnL
-$3.31
Record
36%
516-899 (1415)
Invested
$54.92
Value
—
PnL
-$54.92
Record
60%
694-461 (1155)
Invested
$43.93
Value
$56.91
PnL
+$12.98
Record
48%
665-716 (1381)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.0K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $647.36
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
stepahead
Down — $282.15
blue.birds
Down — $290.04
almach
Down — $300