Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.3K

Combined PnL

$62.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 48 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down35 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares25,846

Combined PnL+$367.03

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares899

Combined PnL-$304.77

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.9K	-$108.72	55% 182-146 (328)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$41.11	34% 33-63 (96)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$68.11	45% 474-576 (1050)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.3	99% 566-3 (569)
machinelearned	Downavg 88.7¢	$717.65	$722.35	+$4.69	43% 739-963 (1702)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 61.9¢	$491.25	$435.98	-$30.67	42% 478-656 (1134)
AL almach	Downavg 80.2¢	$427.55	$533	+$105.45	48% 885-942 (1827)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 90.1¢	$325.32	$349.79	+$24.47	50% 505-511 (1016)
BO bosona	Downavg 84.4¢	$277.19	$328.24	+$51.05	50% 4125-4066 (8191)
ST stepahead	Downavg 75¢	$320.09	$296.64	-$23.45	55% 3974-3307 (7281)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.8¢	$243.06	$257.29	+$17.34	44% 516-658 (1174)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 26.9¢	$250.77	$219.48	-$31.29	46% 661-788 (1449)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$94.57	$219.48	+$124.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.9¢	$156.2	—	-$156.2
SP spartacray	Downavg 84.2¢	$206.7	$240	+$33.3	58% 626-458 (1084)
MO mo-money	Downavg 84.6¢	$192.6	$227.76	+$35.16	48% 884-955 (1839)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 90.4¢	$214.33	$202.14	-$6.19	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 91.9¢	$205.77	$198.07	-$7.7	50% 548-543 (1091)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 85.9¢	$171.25	$192.24	+$24.89	55% 593-482 (1075)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.6¢	$171.64	$160	-$11.64	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$132.79	$104.21	-$28.58	51% 528-510 (1038)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$80.89	—	-$80.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$51.91	$104.21	+$52.3
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$127.78	$114.67	-$13.11	53% 4274-3719 (7993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.6¢	$85.53	$114.67	+$29.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.4¢	$42.25	—	-$42.25
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 59¢	$123.59	—	-$123.59	51% 517-503 (1020)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 86.6¢	$202.48	$115.6	+$13.29	59% 649-446 (1095)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 80.6¢	$97.43	$102.19	+$7.83	66% 2393-1213 (3606)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,763

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$108.72

Record

55%

182-146 (328)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$41.11

Record

34%

33-63 (96)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$68.11

Record

45%

474-576 (1050)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,999.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.3

Record

99%

566-3 (569)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$717.65

Value

$722.35

PnL

+$4.69

Record

43%

739-963 (1702)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$491.25

Value

$435.98

PnL

-$30.67

Record

42%

478-656 (1134)

almach

Down

Invested

$427.55

Value

$533

PnL

+$105.45

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$325.32

Value

$349.79

PnL

+$24.47

Record

50%

505-511 (1016)

bosona

Down

Invested

$277.19

Value

$328.24

PnL

+$51.05

Record

50%

4125-4066 (8191)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$320.09

Value

$296.64

PnL

-$23.45

Record

55%

3974-3307 (7281)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$243.06

Value

$257.29

PnL

+$17.34

Record

44%

516-658 (1174)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$250.77

Value

$219.48

PnL

-$31.29

Record

46%

661-788 (1449)

Both legs:

Down$94.5743.1¢+$124.91

Up$156.226.9¢-$156.2

spartacray

Down

Invested

$206.7

Value

$240

PnL

+$33.3

Record

58%

626-458 (1084)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$192.6

Value

$227.76

PnL

+$35.16

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$214.33

Value

$202.14

PnL

-$6.19

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$205.77

Value

$198.07

PnL

-$7.7

Record

50%

548-543 (1091)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$171.25

Value

$192.24

PnL

+$24.89

Record

55%

593-482 (1075)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$171.64

Value

$160

PnL

-$11.64

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$132.79

Value

$104.21

PnL

-$28.58

Record

51%

528-510 (1038)

Both legs:

Up$80.8949¢-$80.89

Down$51.9149.8¢+$52.3

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.78

Value

$114.67

PnL

-$13.11

Record

53%

4274-3719 (7993)

Both legs:

Down$85.5374.6¢+$29.14

Up$42.2529.4¢-$42.25

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$123.59

Value

—

PnL

-$123.59

Record

51%

517-503 (1020)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$202.48

Value

$115.6

PnL

+$13.29

Record

59%

649-446 (1095)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$97.43

Value

$102.19

PnL

+$7.83

Record

66%

2393-1213 (3606)

Smart Money Signal

Down

35 of 48 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdd4b1bfc...a105d3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794525000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $7.9K

-$108.72

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$41.11

machine-earning

Down — $3.8K

+$68.11

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$30.3

machinelearned

Down — $722.35

+$4.69

ByteBadger92

Down — $500

+$0

QuantumPebble673

Down — $500

+$0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $435.98

-$30.67

almach

Down — $533

+$105.45

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down — $349.79

+$24.47

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