Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 44%

29 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 32 top traders (44%)29 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,995

Combined PnL+$130.9

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,684

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$7.5K	+$109.83	55% 182-146 (328)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.5K	+$3.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.8K	—	$-3.6K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	-$296.29	34% 33-63 (96)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.3K	$4.6K	+$2.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	-$101.76	45% 474-576 (1050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$2.9K	+$1.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$1.0K	$968.53	-$67.81	46% 661-788 (1449)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$382.02	$968.53	+$586.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$654.31	—	-$654.31
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$970.85	$1.0K	+$72.06	55% 3974-3307 (7281)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$416.38	$1.0K	+$626.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$554.47	—	-$554.47
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$974.5	$851.63	-$51.87	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$457.02	$851.63	+$411.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$463.82	—	-$463.82
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$607.76	$704.4	+$96.64	42% 478-656 (1134)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$280.3	$704.4	+$424.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$327.46	—	-$327.46
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 38.6¢	$517.78	$732.31	+$214.53	60% 694-461 (1155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$283	$732.31	+$449.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$234.78	—	-$234.78
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$436.28	$541.21	+$104.92	44% 516-658 (1174)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$237.18	$541.21	+$304.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$199.1	—	-$199.1
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$534.71	$484.38	-$50.32	49% 507-518 (1025)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$228.99	$484.38	+$255.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.5¢	$305.71	—	-$305.71
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$371.57	$422.26	+$50.7	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$180.63	$422.26	+$241.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$190.94	—	-$190.94
AL almach	Upavg 75.2¢	$563.39	$405.06	-$158.33	48% 885-942 (1827)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$333.18	$409.9	+$83.82	53% 4274-3719 (7993)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$207.98	$409.9	+$203.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$120.13	—	-$120.13
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$281.71	$332.34	+$50.63	50% 505-511 (1016)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$126.87	$332.34	+$205.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$154.84	—	-$154.84
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 91¢	$429.83	$339.69	-$90.14	48% 884-955 (1839)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$197.27	$339.69	+$142.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 91¢	$232.56	—	-$232.56
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$417.71	$327.86	-$74.1	50% 548-543 (1091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$199.89	$327.86	+$128.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$202.57	—	-$202.57
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$258.51	$340.03	+$84.69	54% 573-498 (1071)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$161.04	$340.03	+$179.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$95.1	—	-$95.1
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 39.4¢	$231.97	$376.49	+$144.51	51% 528-510 (1038)
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 89¢	$311.23	—	-$311.23	54% 246-210 (456)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$313.4	$171.95	-$100.72	52% 615-573 (1188)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$231.64	—	-$231.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$58.58	$171.95	+$130.92
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$278.35	$270.8	-$7.55	51% 517-503 (1020)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.3¢	$206.5	$270.8	+$64.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$71.85	—	-$71.85
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$223.57	$235.17	+$11.6	47% 997-1147 (2144)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.7¢	$121.63	$235.17	+$113.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$101.94	—	-$101.94
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$243.64	$217.49	-$26.14	49% 464-488 (952)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$120.04	$217.49	+$97.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$123.59	—	-$123.59

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,992

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$109.83

Record

55%

182-146 (328)

Both legs:

Up$3,762.750¢+$3.7K

Down$3,765.7750¢$-3.6K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$296.29

Record

34%

33-63 (96)

Both legs:

Up$2,300.5650¢+$2.2K

Down$2,351.3750¢$-2.4K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$101.76

Record

45%

474-576 (1050)

Both legs:

Up$1,459.6850¢+$1.3K

Down$1,406.0750¢$-1.4K

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,036.34

Value

$968.53

PnL

-$67.81

Record

46%

661-788 (1449)

Both legs:

Up$382.0239.4¢+$586.5

Down$654.3146.8¢-$654.31

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$970.85

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$72.06

Record

55%

3974-3307 (7281)

Both legs:

Up$416.3839.9¢+$626.53

Down$554.4757.5¢-$554.47

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$974.5

Value

$851.63

PnL

-$51.87

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

Both legs:

Up$457.0253.7¢+$411.95

Down$463.8241.4¢-$463.82

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$607.76

Value

$704.4

PnL

+$96.64

Record

42%

478-656 (1134)

Both legs:

Up$280.339.8¢+$424.1

Down$327.4641.7¢-$327.46

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$517.78

Value

$732.31

PnL

+$214.53

Record

60%

694-461 (1155)

Both legs:

Up$28338.6¢+$449.31

Down$234.7844¢-$234.78

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$436.28

Value

$541.21

PnL

+$104.92

Record

44%

516-658 (1174)

Both legs:

Up$237.1843.8¢+$304.02

Down$199.146.7¢-$199.1

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$534.71

Value

$484.38

PnL

-$50.32

Record

49%

507-518 (1025)

Both legs:

Up$228.9947.3¢+$255.39

Down$305.7178.5¢-$305.71

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$371.57

Value

$422.26

PnL

+$50.7

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

Both legs:

Up$180.6342.8¢+$241.63

Down$190.9457.6¢-$190.94

almach

Invested

$563.39

Value

$405.06

PnL

-$158.33

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$333.18

Value

$409.9

PnL

+$83.82

Record

53%

4274-3719 (7993)

Both legs:

Up$207.9850.7¢+$203.95

Down$120.1342.9¢-$120.13

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$281.71

Value

$332.34

PnL

+$50.63

Record

50%

505-511 (1016)

Both legs:

Up$126.8738.2¢+$205.47

Down$154.8449.9¢-$154.84

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$429.83

Value

$339.69

PnL

-$90.14

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

Both legs:

Up$197.2758.1¢+$142.42

Down$232.5691¢-$232.56

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$417.71

Value

$327.86

PnL

-$74.1

Record

50%

548-543 (1091)

Both legs:

Up$199.8961¢+$128.47

Down$202.5771.6¢-$202.57

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$258.51

Value

$340.03

PnL

+$84.69

Record

54%

573-498 (1071)

Both legs:

Up$161.0447.4¢+$179.79

Down$95.143.4¢-$95.1

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$231.97

Value

$376.49

PnL

+$144.51

Record

51%

528-510 (1038)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$311.23

Value

—

PnL

-$311.23

Record

54%

246-210 (456)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$313.4

Value

$171.95

PnL

-$100.72

Record

52%

615-573 (1188)

Both legs:

Down$231.6453.5¢-$231.64

Up$58.5834.1¢+$130.92

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$278.35

Value

$270.8

PnL

-$7.55

Record

51%

517-503 (1020)

Both legs:

Up$206.576.3¢+$64.3

Down$71.8532¢-$71.85

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$223.57

Value

$235.17

PnL

+$11.6

Record

47%

997-1147 (2144)

Both legs:

Up$121.6351.7¢+$113.54

Down$101.9452¢-$101.94

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$243.64

Value

$217.49

PnL

-$26.14

Record

49%

464-488 (952)

Both legs:

Up$120.0455.2¢+$97.45

Down$123.5956.8¢-$123.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 32 top traders (44%)29 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3d24ba84...69f4c6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794524400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

+$0

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