Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 57%
5 arb excluded
$31.2K
$-4.8K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 57 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $6.7K | -$298.85 | 55% 182-146 (328) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.4K | -$156.59 | 34% 33-63 (96) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 566-3 (569) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.3K | -$125.84 | 45% 474-576 (1050) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 91.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$151.94 | 60% 694-461 (1155) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.84 | 73% 1122-407 (1529) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$84.6 | 55% 3974-3307 (7281) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 69.4¢ | $991.25 | $1.0K | +$58.32 | 46% 661-788 (1449) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $987.35 | $895.99 | -$61.36 | 20% 264-1043 (1307) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83.9¢ | $899.28 | $600.29 | -$298.99 | 43% 739-963 (1702) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $408.2 | $486.29 | +$78.09 | 42% 478-656 (1134) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.1¢ | $262.54 | — | -$262.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30¢ | $145.67 | $486.29 | +$340.63 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 97¢ | $640.39 | $500 | -$140.39 | 50% 4125-4066 (8191) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $363.83 | $466 | +$102.18 | 51% 517-503 (1020) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 78¢ | $525.43 | $460 | -$64.93 | 50% 548-543 (1091) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 62¢ | $511.37 | $456.63 | -$21.42 | 52% 4183-3927 (8110) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 68.4¢ | $403.41 | $445.28 | +$41.87 | 54% 573-498 (1071) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 68.3¢ | $455.75 | — | -$453.24 | 55% 593-482 (1075) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $345.8 | $299 | -$46.8 | 51% 528-510 (1038) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 52.7¢ | $351.29 | — | -$346.61 | 44% 516-658 (1174) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 91¢ | $234.79 | $257.99 | +$23.2 | 52% 1825-1704 (3529) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 51¢ | $456.25 | $254 | +$69.17 | 52% 1462-1348 (2810) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 52¢ | $223.42 | — | -$223.42 | 49% 3543-3653 (7196) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 87¢ | $269.12 | $213.27 | -$55.86 | 66% 2393-1213 (3606) |
Invested
$8,714
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$298.85
Record
55%
182-146 (328)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$156.59
Record
34%
33-63 (96)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
566-3 (569)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$125.84
Record
45%
474-576 (1050)
Invested
$2,603.23
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$151.94
Record
60%
694-461 (1155)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,370.42
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.84
Record
73%
1122-407 (1529)
Invested
$1,284.38
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$84.6
Record
55%
3974-3307 (7281)
Invested
$991.25
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$58.32
Record
46%
661-788 (1449)
NIULAI4Invested
$987.35
Value
$895.99
PnL
-$61.36
Record
20%
264-1043 (1307)
machinelearnedInvested
$899.28
Value
$600.29
PnL
-$298.99
Record
43%
739-963 (1702)
Invested
$408.2
Value
$486.29
PnL
+$78.09
Record
42%
478-656 (1134)
Both legs:
Invested
$640.39
Value
$500
PnL
-$140.39
Record
50%
4125-4066 (8191)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$363.83
Value
$466
PnL
+$102.18
Record
51%
517-503 (1020)
Invested
$525.43
Value
$460
PnL
-$64.93
Record
50%
548-543 (1091)
Invested
$511.37
Value
$456.63
PnL
-$21.42
Record
52%
4183-3927 (8110)
Invested
$403.41
Value
$445.28
PnL
+$41.87
Record
54%
573-498 (1071)
Invested
$455.75
Value
—
PnL
-$453.24
Record
55%
593-482 (1075)
Invested
$345.8
Value
$299
PnL
-$46.8
Record
51%
528-510 (1038)
Invested
$351.29
Value
—
PnL
-$346.61
Record
44%
516-658 (1174)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$234.79
Value
$257.99
PnL
+$23.2
Record
52%
1825-1704 (3529)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$456.25
Value
$254
PnL
+$69.17
Record
52%
1462-1348 (2810)
Invested
$223.42
Value
—
PnL
-$223.42
Record
49%
3543-3653 (7196)
Invested
$269.12
Value
$213.27
PnL
-$55.86
Record
66%
2393-1213 (3606)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $6.7K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.4K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
Down — $3.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.8K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.4K
stepahead
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.0K
NIULAI4
Down — $895.99
machinelearned
Down — $600.29