Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$-14.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 54 top traders (69%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed37 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares15,471

Combined PnL+$577.38

Down37 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,502

Combined PnL$-15.0K

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.2K	+$97.45	55% 182-146 (328)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.2K	-$177.45	34% 33-63 (96)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.4K	45% 474-576 (1050)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 66.2¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	46% 661-788 (1449)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$705.73	48% 885-942 (1827)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.5¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$566.41	$1.1K	+$524.59
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$282.89	48% 884-955 (1839)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.9¢	$920.77	—	-$920.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$674.12	$1.3K	+$637.88
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 57.2¢	$857.99	—	-$855.19	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 58.5¢	$866.07	—	-$830.07	42% 478-656 (1134)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$866.08	-$37.92	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$443.68	—	-$454.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$433.04	$866.08	+$416.39
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 79.2¢	$750.87	$836.18	+$85.31	51% 517-503 (1020)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 68.1¢	$794.78	—	-$794.78	55% 3974-3307 (7281)
NIULAI4	Upavg 34.6¢	$411.88	$728.59	+$316.71	20% 264-1043 (1307)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$785.93	$669.69	-$29.3	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.8¢	$506.7	—	-$532.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$191	$669.69	+$502.92
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 60.8¢	$497.58	—	-$487.87	44% 516-658 (1174)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 65.8¢	$573.29	—	-$573.29	54% 573-498 (1071)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 66.1¢	$489.32	—	-$460.32	50% 548-543 (1091)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 38.8¢	$261.16	$385.2	+$175.54	49% 3543-3653 (7196)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 52.7¢	$349.56	$381.88	+$32.32	55% 593-482 (1075)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$486.58	$255.76	-$230.82	48% 489-524 (1013)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.2¢	$69.64	$255.76	+$186.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$416.94	—	-$416.94
MayorMamdaniCTR	Downavg 90.1¢	$353.83	—	-$353.83	52% 1825-1704 (3529)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Downavg 61.1¢	$415.52	—	-$415.52	50% 502-509 (1011)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 53.7¢	$319.94	—	-$309.8	53% 4274-3719 (7993)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 77.2¢	$357.16	$268.96	-$88.2	44% 451-571 (1022)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,867

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$97.45

Record

55%

182-146 (328)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$177.45

Record

34%

33-63 (96)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

45%

474-576 (1050)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$2,099.47

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

46%

661-788 (1449)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,796.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$705.73

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

Both legs:

Down$1,230.3286.5¢$-1.2K

Up$566.4151.9¢+$524.59

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,594.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$282.89

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

Both legs:

Down$920.7786.9¢-$920.77

Up$674.1251.4¢+$637.88

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$857.99

Value

—

PnL

-$855.19

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$866.07

Value

—

PnL

-$830.07

Record

42%

478-656 (1134)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$866.08

PnL

-$37.92

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

Both legs:

Down$443.6850¢-$454.32

Up$433.0450¢+$416.39

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$750.87

Value

$836.18

PnL

+$85.31

Record

51%

517-503 (1020)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$794.78

Value

—

PnL

-$794.78

Record

55%

3974-3307 (7281)

NIULAI4

Invested

$411.88

Value

$728.59

PnL

+$316.71

Record

20%

264-1043 (1307)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$785.93

Value

$669.69

PnL

-$29.3

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

Both legs:

Down$506.781.8¢-$532.22

Up$19128.5¢+$502.92

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$497.58

Value

—

PnL

-$487.87

Record

44%

516-658 (1174)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$573.29

Value

—

PnL

-$573.29

Record

54%

573-498 (1071)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$489.32

Value

—

PnL

-$460.32

Record

50%

548-543 (1091)

asdcaxz

Invested

$261.16

Value

$385.2

PnL

+$175.54

Record

49%

3543-3653 (7196)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$349.56

Value

$381.88

PnL

+$32.32

Record

55%

593-482 (1075)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$486.58

Value

$255.76

PnL

-$230.82

Record

48%

489-524 (1013)

Both legs:

Up$69.6427.2¢+$186.12

Down$416.9439¢-$416.94

MayorMamdaniCTR

Down

Invested

$353.83

Value

—

PnL

-$353.83

Record

52%

1825-1704 (3529)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Down

Invested

$415.52

Value

—

PnL

-$415.52

Record

50%

502-509 (1011)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$319.94

Value

—

PnL

-$309.8

Record

53%

4274-3719 (7993)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$357.16

Value

$268.96

PnL

-$88.2

Record

44%

451-571 (1022)

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 54 top traders (69%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed37 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb437030f...6dc2f7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794523800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.2K

+$97.45

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.2K

machine-earning

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

almach

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Up — $836.18

+$85.31

Trade on Polymarket