Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

35 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 33 top traders (58%)35 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,009

Combined PnL+$875.76

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,922

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	$7.6K	-$6.25	55% 182-146 (328)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.6K	+$3.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.9K	—	$-3.7K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.0K	-$541.81	34% 33-63 (96)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.0K	$4.0K	+$1.7K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$15.36	45% 474-576 (1050)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.8K
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$13.14	98% 2427-48 (2475)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$1.0K	$892.69	-$138.14	20% 264-1043 (1307)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$681.82	—	-$681.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.1¢	$349.01	$892.69	+$543.68
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 51.3¢	$750.43	—	-$716.03	42% 478-656 (1134)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$924.43	$860.18	-$64.25	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$518.42	—	-$518.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$406	$860.18	+$454.17
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$935	+$40.9	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$467.5	$935	+$464.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$427.29	—	-$423.3
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 34.2¢	$424.01	$859.21	+$435.19	46% 661-788 (1449)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.8¢	$170.32	$859.21	+$688.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.2¢	$253.69	—	-$253.69
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$796.86	$558.09	-$238.77	60% 694-461 (1155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$536.51	—	-$536.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$260.35	$558.09	+$297.74
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$636.99	$782.16	+$145.18	51% 528-510 (1038)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.2¢	$236.07	$782.16	+$546.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$400.91	—	-$400.91
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 67.4¢	$678.05	—	-$677.8	50% 548-543 (1091)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$501.21	$631.7	+$130.49	55% 3974-3307 (7281)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$272.86	$631.7	+$358.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$228.35	—	-$228.35
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$457.49	$537.8	+$80.31	44% 451-571 (1022)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$369.86	$537.8	+$167.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$87.63	—	-$87.63
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 35¢	$330.95	$525.29	+$194.34	44% 516-658 (1174)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$183.67	$525.29	+$341.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$147.28	—	-$147.28
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$562.13	$547.76	-$14.36	48% 884-955 (1839)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.9¢	$399.14	$547.76	+$148.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$162.99	—	-$162.99
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 61.7¢	$425.09	—	-$402.5	49% 3543-3653 (7196)
OhioAI	Downavg 44¢	$200.69	$305.49	+$142.6	49% 464-488 (952)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 33.8¢	$185.58	$292.42	+$167.99	46% 1368-1585 (2953)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$345.33	$314.91	-$30.42	55% 593-482 (1075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$201.59	$314.91	+$113.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$143.74	—	-$143.74
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$334.16	$362.16	+$28	48% 885-942 (1827)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$210.05	$362.16	+$152.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.3¢	$124.11	—	-$124.11
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 68.2¢	$307.19	$403.95	+$96.77	55% 1445-1188 (2633)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$265.53	$188.7	-$76.83	52% 615-573 (1188)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$143.08	—	-$143.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.9¢	$122.45	$188.7	+$66.25

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,976

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$6.25

Record

55%

182-146 (328)

Both legs:

Down$3,795.1750¢+$3.7K

Up$3,890.9450¢$-3.7K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$541.81

Record

34%

33-63 (96)

Both legs:

Up$2,174.7350¢$-2.3K

Down$2,006.9850¢+$1.7K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$15.36

Record

45%

474-576 (1050)

Both legs:

Down$1,709.1150¢+$1.7K

Up$1,709.1150¢$-1.8K

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,248.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.14

Record

98%

2427-48 (2475)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,030.83

Value

$892.69

PnL

-$138.14

Record

20%

264-1043 (1307)

Both legs:

Up$681.8262¢-$681.82

Down$349.0139.1¢+$543.68

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$750.43

Value

—

PnL

-$716.03

Record

42%

478-656 (1134)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$924.43

Value

$860.18

PnL

-$64.25

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

Both legs:

Up$518.4253.6¢-$518.42

Down$40647.2¢+$454.17

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$935

PnL

+$40.9

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

Both legs:

Down$467.550¢+$464.2

Up$427.2950¢-$423.3

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$424.01

Value

$859.21

PnL

+$435.19

Record

46%

661-788 (1449)

Both legs:

Down$170.3219.8¢+$688.89

Up$253.6934.2¢-$253.69

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$796.86

Value

$558.09

PnL

-$238.77

Record

60%

694-461 (1155)

Both legs:

Up$536.5152.2¢-$536.51

Down$260.3546.6¢+$297.74

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$636.99

Value

$782.16

PnL

+$145.18

Record

51%

528-510 (1038)

Both legs:

Down$236.0730.2¢+$546.09

Up$400.9171.4¢-$400.91

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$678.05

Value

—

PnL

-$677.8

Record

50%

548-543 (1091)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$501.21

Value

$631.7

PnL

+$130.49

Record

55%

3974-3307 (7281)

Both legs:

Down$272.8643.2¢+$358.84

Up$228.3542.4¢-$228.35

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$25050¢-$250

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$457.49

Value

$537.8

PnL

+$80.31

Record

44%

451-571 (1022)

Both legs:

Down$369.8668.8¢+$167.94

Up$87.6320.1¢-$87.63

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$330.95

Value

$525.29

PnL

+$194.34

Record

44%

516-658 (1174)

Both legs:

Down$183.6735¢+$341.62

Up$147.2855.2¢-$147.28

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$562.13

Value

$547.76

PnL

-$14.36

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

Both legs:

Down$399.1472.9¢+$148.62

Up$162.9970.2¢-$162.99

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$425.09

Value

—

PnL

-$402.5

Record

49%

3543-3653 (7196)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$200.69

Value

$305.49

PnL

+$142.6

Record

49%

464-488 (952)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$185.58

Value

$292.42

PnL

+$167.99

Record

46%

1368-1585 (2953)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$345.33

Value

$314.91

PnL

-$30.42

Record

55%

593-482 (1075)

Both legs:

Down$201.5964¢+$113.32

Up$143.7464.1¢-$143.74

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$334.16

Value

$362.16

PnL

+$28

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

Both legs:

Down$210.0558¢+$152.11

Up$124.1183.3¢-$124.11

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$307.19

Value

$403.95

PnL

+$96.77

Record

55%

1445-1188 (2633)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$265.53

Value

$188.7

PnL

-$76.83

Record

52%

615-573 (1188)

Both legs:

Up$143.0848.1¢-$143.08

Down$122.4564.9¢+$66.25

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 33 top traders (58%)35 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xad4f9572...b46918

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794523500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$13.14

NIULAI4

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$138.14

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded