Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

26 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 100¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

-$697.61

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 48 top traders (54%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares15,828

Combined PnL-$376.04

Up22 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,991

Combined PnL-$321.57

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.0K	+$51.24	56% 177-140 (317)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$228.84	33% 31-62 (93)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$231.65	45% 470-569 (1039)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$173.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$405.52
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	$840.42	-$25.68	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 54.6¢	$666.38	$586.64	-$79.75	55% 3964-3302 (7266)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$700.72	$506.66	-$194.06	60% 686-457 (1143)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$199.88	$382.97	+$183.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$500.84	$123.7	-$377.15
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 36¢	$378.21	$470.74	+$92.53	46% 655-779 (1434)
AL almach	Downavg 86.6¢	$481.91	$460.29	-$21.62	48% 875-935 (1810)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 65.7¢	$539.65	$457.65	-$82.01	52% 4164-3913 (8077)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 68¢	$332.08	$422.66	+$90.58	50% 504-506 (1010)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 35.5¢	$375.69	$421.57	+$89.4	42% 474-649 (1123)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 62.5¢	$450.34	$400.66	-$49.68	50% 541-539 (1080)
NIULAI4	Downavg 71.5¢	$433.73	$327.87	-$105.86	20% 254-1040 (1294)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$273.42	$289.45	+$16.03	46% 985-1137 (2122)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 60.6¢	$404.06	$283.57	-$120.48	43% 732-958 (1690)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 72.8¢	$252.01	$277.52	+$25.52	52% 610-566 (1176)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$231.66	$272.71	+$41.05	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$181.51	$166.72	-$14.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.7¢	$50.15	$105.99	+$55.84
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.9¢	$286.29	$250.3	-$35.98	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$191.94	$191.2	-$0.75	51% 513-499 (1012)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$105.33	$135.64	+$30.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 21¢	$86.61	$55.55	-$31.05
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 91¢	$174.51	$180.62	+$6.11	50% 504-514 (1018)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91¢	$138.23	$131.39	-$6.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.9¢	$36.28	$49.23	+$12.95
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 92¢	$441.14	$179.16	-$261.98	50% 4114-4061 (8175)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.9¢	$132.94	$133.94	+$1
└ Up leg	Upavg 92¢	$308.2	$45.23	-$262.97
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 75.6¢	$172.42	$170.24	-$2.45	63% 2780-1667 (4447)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$205.03	$161.02	-$44.02	53% 563-497 (1060)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$115.32	$99.06	-$16.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$89.71	$61.95	-$27.75

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,609

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$51.24

Record

56%

177-140 (317)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$228.84

Record

33%

31-62 (93)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$231.65

Record

45%

470-569 (1039)

Both legs:

Up$1,526.6850¢+$173.87

Down$1,526.6750¢-$405.52

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

$840.42

PnL

-$25.68

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$666.38

Value

$586.64

PnL

-$79.75

Record

55%

3964-3302 (7266)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$700.72

Value

$506.66

PnL

-$194.06

Record

60%

686-457 (1143)

Both legs:

Down$199.8845.1¢+$183.09

Up$500.8454.7¢-$377.15

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$378.21

Value

$470.74

PnL

+$92.53

Record

46%

655-779 (1434)

almach

Down

Invested

$481.91

Value

$460.29

PnL

-$21.62

Record

48%

875-935 (1810)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$539.65

Value

$457.65

PnL

-$82.01

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$332.08

Value

$422.66

PnL

+$90.58

Record

50%

504-506 (1010)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$375.69

Value

$421.57

PnL

+$89.4

Record

42%

474-649 (1123)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$450.34

Value

$400.66

PnL

-$49.68

Record

50%

541-539 (1080)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$433.73

Value

$327.87

PnL

-$105.86

Record

20%

254-1040 (1294)

rabadabadooCTR

Invested

$273.42

Value

$289.45

PnL

+$16.03

Record

46%

985-1137 (2122)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$404.06

Value

$283.57

PnL

-$120.48

Record

43%

732-958 (1690)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$252.01

Value

$277.52

PnL

+$25.52

Record

52%

610-566 (1176)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$231.66

Value

$272.71

PnL

+$41.05

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Both legs:

Up$181.5168¢-$14.79

Down$50.1517.7¢+$55.84

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$286.29

Value

$250.3

PnL

-$35.98

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.94

Value

$191.2

PnL

-$0.75

Record

51%

513-499 (1012)

Both legs:

Down$105.3367.2¢+$30.31

Up$86.6121¢-$31.05

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.51

Value

$180.62

PnL

+$6.11

Record

50%

504-514 (1018)

Both legs:

Down$138.2391¢-$6.84

Up$36.289.9¢+$12.95

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$441.14

Value

$179.16

PnL

-$261.98

Record

50%

4114-4061 (8175)

Both legs:

Invested

$172.42

Value

$170.24

PnL

-$2.45

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$205.03

Value

$161.02

PnL

-$44.02

Record

53%

563-497 (1060)

Both legs:

Down$115.3260¢-$16.26

Up$89.7170.2¢-$27.75

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 48 top traders (54%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.