Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 75%
$15.0K
$-15.5K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 57 top traders (75%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.0K | 56% 177-140 (317) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$4.91 | 49% 936-980 (1916) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$8.4 | 47% 975-1099 (2074) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 90.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$2.36 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.5¢ | $729.32 | $843.38 | +$114.05 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $833.83 | $618.7 | -$215.13 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
AL almach | Downavg 98.9¢ | $532.92 | $532.89 | -$0.03 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.5¢ | $525.21 | $527.49 | +$2.28 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 94¢ | $486.67 | $499.99 | +$13.32 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
BO bosona | Downavg 75.6¢ | $392.52 | $498.6 | +$106.08 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $409.26 | $437.97 | +$29.21 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $369.51 | $382.43 | +$12.92 | 51% 524-507 (1031) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 81.1¢ | $325.85 | $271.64 | -$15.77 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 83.3¢ | $204.48 | $238.61 | +$39.47 | 59% 643-441 (1084) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.3¢ | $422.26 | $225.3 | -$46.59 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 86.7¢ | $192.91 | $211.18 | +$28.91 | 60% 636-425 (1061) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 84.3¢ | $157.05 | $186.33 | +$29.28 | 58% 622-451 (1073) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 94.9¢ | $221.44 | $162.29 | -$59.15 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 83.6¢ | $200.51 | $169.61 | -$30.9 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 97.1¢ | $174.78 | $166 | -$8.78 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 74¢ | $102.08 | $132 | +$29.92 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
Invested
$8,570
Value
—
PnL
$-7.0K
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
Invested
$4,901.11
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$4.91
Record
49%
936-980 (1916)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$1,391.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$8.4
Record
47%
975-1099 (2074)
Invested
$1,351.28
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$2.36
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
machinelearnedInvested
$729.32
Value
$843.38
PnL
+$114.05
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$833.83
Value
$618.7
PnL
-$215.13
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$532.92
Value
$532.89
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$525.21
Value
$527.49
PnL
+$2.28
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$486.67
Value
$499.99
PnL
+$13.32
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$392.52
Value
$498.6
PnL
+$106.08
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$409.26
Value
$437.97
PnL
+$29.21
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$369.51
Value
$382.43
PnL
+$12.92
Record
51%
524-507 (1031)
Invested
$325.85
Value
$271.64
PnL
-$15.77
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$204.48
Value
$238.61
PnL
+$39.47
Record
59%
643-441 (1084)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$422.26
Value
$225.3
PnL
-$46.59
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$192.91
Value
$211.18
PnL
+$28.91
Record
60%
636-425 (1061)
Invested
$157.05
Value
$186.33
PnL
+$29.28
Record
58%
622-451 (1073)
Invested
$221.44
Value
$162.29
PnL
-$59.15
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$200.51
Value
$169.61
PnL
-$30.9
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$174.78
Value
$166
PnL
-$8.78
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$102.08
Value
$132
PnL
+$29.92
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $4.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.4K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.3K
machinelearned
Down — $843.38
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $618.7
almach
Down — $532.89
stepahead
Down — $527.49